Early in his 2016 campaign for the US presidency, Donald Trump told an audience at an Iowa caucus meeting: “I could stand in the middle of Fifth Avenue and shoot somebody, and I wouldn’t lose any voters, OK? It’s, like, incredible.”
Incredible it undoubtedly has been, and he must be hoping that this strange quality of immunity will serve him once again after his indictment on serious federal charges of attempting to defraud the US, tampering with a witness and conspiracy against the rights of citizens. And these are just the latest instalment of alleged offences that will keep Mr Trump, his foolhardy lawyers and the courts busy for months if not years to come.
Unfortunately, for the American people – though not Mr Trump himself – he has been more right than wrong in his observation about getting away with things in recent years. With a total of 71 criminal indictments to his name (so far), he’s never been more popular in Republican circles. Mr Trump’s many enemies might think twice about bumping into him on Fifth Avenue anytime soon.
Like some sort of unlikely Marvel hero – the Incredible Sulk? – he has seemingly grown stronger every time he has found himself in trouble, be it legal, moral or political. Revelations such as the infamous “grab ’em” tape about his attitude to women, his relationship with Stormy Daniels, and numerous breaches of the law and indeed the constitution of the United States should have been sufficient to kill his political career. Yet on each occasion, including two impeachments, he has usually dodged justice.
On each occasion, Mr Trump reverts to a tried and tested tune from his playbook. Through some innate base superpower of instinct, he has leveraged his misfortunes to his own advantage. Faced with some serious allegations of malfeasance, he immediately casts himself in the role of a victim of a “witch hunt”. Everything is denied, and every grand jury, prosecutor, state office, judge and federal employee involved is supposedly engaged in the plot. It is fanciful, at best, but for a base that increasingly resembles a cult, Mr Trump’s travails only give proof to his claims and make them all the more determined to fight for him.
Even after the events of 6 January 2021, and even after evidence of wrongdoing has been assembled and charges laid against him, Mr Trump is the unassailable frontrunner for the Republican nomination. Ron DeSantis has proved a disappointment and, as former nominee Mitt Romney suggests, the likes of Mike Pence would be better off dropping out and uniting behind one Republican with the chance of stopping Mr Trump from inflicting yet more damage on his party, his country and the world. As Mr Romney pleads: “For that to happen, Republican mega-donors and influencers – large and small – are going to have to do something they didn’t do in 2016: get candidates they support to agree to withdraw if and when their paths to the nomination are effectively closed.”
However, there are signs that the sheer scale of the criminality associated with Mr Trump is alienating some Republican voters. Polls show he is slipping. For mainstream Republican voters, the prospect of “their” guy trying to organise an election campaign against a sitting president while simultaneously touring assorted courtrooms and attorneys’ offices across the nation appals them, as does the increasingly disturbing evidence about Mr Trump’s lawless behaviour. They may despise president Joe Biden and hold vice president Kamala Harris in even deeper contempt, but they cannot countenance electing a president with the serious risk that he will be obliged to conduct affairs of state from a federal penitentiary. Over the coming months, particularly as the primaries get under way, many more Republican supporters will begin to reason that the madness must end. If they don’t, and Mr Trump does indeed become the candidate for 2024, it is difficult to see him winning the presidency, though it would be close.
In 2024, American voters will be faced with what might be termed a suboptimal choice: Biden vs Trump. It is said that democracies get the leaders they deserve, but the American people should surely have a right to expect a more inspirational choice than those two elderly gentlemen, both of whom are past their peak.
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