The NHS needs protecting now – Boris Johnson can’t afford to make the same mistake twice

Editorial: The government should at least require masks and working from home until the path of infections is clear

The prime minister should set this example to his MPs more often (AP)

When Sajid Javid, the health secretary, said he did not believe that the current pressures on the National Health Service were “unsustainable”, this was a matter of semantics. Obviously, the pressures will be sustained, by a stretched and often demoralised staff, and by stoical and resigned patients. The question is whether the government needs to take action now to make the situation more sustainable.

It is as well to be clear that the main problem in the NHS at the moment is not Covid-19, but the huge pressure of unmet demand for treatment that has been suppressed by the pandemic over the past 19 months. This is combined with the problem of staff shortages to produce extended waits in A&E departments, with one hospital to begin turning away people with non-life-threatening conditions from Monday. Shaun Lintern, our health correspondent, in a special report exposes the depth of the crisis across the country.

However, the potentially exponential spread of coronavirus means that we could be just three or four weeks away from Covid-19 putting the NHS under what would be unsustainable pressure under anybody’s definition, according to Professor Graham Medley, chair of Spi-M, the government’s scientific committee modelling the spread of the virus.

For that reason, it would seem that the argument for precautionary restrictions is strong; it is striking that an opinion poll for The Times found that 69 per cent of people would support government guidance to work from home if possible, and that 76 per cent support the compulsory wearing of face coverings on public transport and in shops.

Masks may not have much effect, but they reassure people and they are a way of reminding everyone to be careful. It is unimpressive that Conservative MPs are so wedded to partisan views that they are not prepared to make this small concession to the majority. If masks turn out not to be necessary, they can say they told us so, but in the meantime would it not make sense to err on the side of caution?

Working from home is a more important intervention. According to the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage), it would have a greater effect in curbing the spread of the virus. It would also have a more disruptive effect on people’s lives and the economy, so it may be that it should be held in reserve – although as it would be voluntary it is hard to see what the objection would be to it as a short-term measure.

It is notable, however, that, despite speculation that the government’s scientific advisers have urged more restrictions, the Sage minutes say only that ministers should be “prepared” to act quickly if the infection figures continue to rise.

It is worth noting, too, that Professor Medley tells The Independent: “I’m relatively optimistic. We are seeing an increase now, but I think that immunity will win out.”

It may be that the rise in infections will ease off, and it is undoubtedly the case, as Rishi Sunak, the chancellor, says, that the vaccines have changed the situation radically from when we seemed to be in a similar position last year. Yet the NHS is in such a difficult state that it is hard to ignore the voices from within the service warning how close it is to the “tipping point” into “catastrophe”.

Boris Johnson misjudged the virus last year, and even though the vaccines mean that the direct effect of a doubling of infections is less serious, the consequential effect on the rest of the NHS would be much more so. For that reason, it would make sense to impose some minor restrictions now, such as requiring face coverings, and to be ready to advise people to work from home, until the level of virus infections is clearly coming down again.

The prime minister was given the benefit of the doubt by many of the people this year, largely because of the success of the vaccines. It would be in his own interest not to make the same mistake twice.