The path to normality may be delayed – but caution now will save lives

Editorial: The lesson of the last year is that unlocking too early means a more severe and longer lockdown later on

People queue for the vaccination centre at the Essa Academy in Bolton, where the Indian coronavirus variant has been detected (PA)

The key “takeaway” from what seems to have been an unscheduled Covid press conference is the phrase “hard choices”, uttered by Boris Johnson, a man famously averse to such dilemmas. The prime minister is fonder of having his cake and eating it.

While there is apparently enough confidence to go ahead with the partial unlock on Monday, the clear message is that the Great Leap Forward planned for June may have to be more cautious and partly postponed. This likely means that holidays and the opening of the leisure sector, as well as the wider economic recovery, will be slower and more hesitant than previously thought.

As with the previous unlocks, the path to normality may not be smooth and may not be traversed as rapidly as all would wish. Summer, if not exactly “cancelled”, might be somewhat more restrained than seemed likely only a few weeks ago. As the prime minister put it, there may be some “distortion and delay to that ambition”. Similar caution has been expressed by Mark Drakeford and Nicola Sturgeon.

Much depends on whether the variant of concern known as B1.617.2, the so-called Indian variant, which has taken such a hold in Bolton and Blackburn, is growing in other places, and is up to a “market share” of around 10 per cent of all cases. The chief medical officer, Chris Whitty, was candid enough to admit that the variant is certainly more transmissible than the Kent variant and that it will overtake and become the dominant variant in the UK.

What is not yet known is exactly how much more transmissible the Indian variant is. Its progress will mean more infections but not necessarily as great a leap in hospitalisations and deaths, given the protection now afforded by the vaccines, and the progress made in treatments since the peaks of earlier this year and last year. The Indian variant is certainly outstripping the capacity of the authorities to contain it via test and trace, however, and it may be winning the race with the vaccine.

The question – a live one within the joint committee on vaccinations and immunisation – is whether the risk right now is serious enough to warrant a postponement of the imminent unlock on Monday, on the precautionary principle. Politically and economically that is not an attractive option, but no matter, because the lesson of the last year is that unlocking too early means a more severe and longer lockdown later on. How long will it take to know more about the infectiousness of the Indian variant? If only a few days, it might be worth pushing it back for a time.

There’s some comfort to be had from the accelerated second dose programme for the over-50s, and the surge in testing and vaccinations in the most affected areas. Action has to be taken to limit the spread of the new variant before it multiplies still further and undermines the health of the under-40s – those who have mostly not been vaccinated and are most at risk. Even if they do not die from Covid, we can never forget the life-changing consequences of long Covid.

The presence of Chris Whitty and the prime minister’s chastened demeanour suggests that there is a major potential problem with the roadmap, possibly caused by failures to close borders or to adequately support local public health officers in Lancashire and other affected hotspots.

Mr Johnson did his best to “level” with people, and Professor Whitty was his usual calm, balanced self, but there is just the suspicion that things could get very much worse before they start to get better again, and that this Covid crisis might even stretch into 2022.