The government must heed its own Covid mantra and ‘follow the science’

Editorial: There have to be doubts over whether the measures taken are robust enough – given other simple steps that could have been taken

(Dave Brown)

“Follow the science” has been a motto of the government since the Covid-19 pandemic began. Now we know that the scientific advice from the New and Emerging Respiratory Virus Threats Advisory Group (Nervtag) recommended that “early robust action be taken” over the omicron variant.

Nervtag were plainly concerned about the emergence of omicron: “If introduced into the UK, B.1.1.529 would likely be capable of initiating a new wave of infections … We cannot exclude that this wave would be of a magnitude similar, or even larger, than previous waves. Although data on disease severity associated with B.1.1.529 are not yet available, a large wave of infections will be accompanied by a wave of severe cases and [Nervtag] cannot rule out that this may be sufficient to overwhelm NHS capacity.”

The measures put in place so far include some travel restrictions; those in contact with someone who has the variant being told to self-isolate; and face-coverings being made mandatory in shops and on public transport. Most importantly, the vaccine booster programme has been stepped up, with ambitious (and perhaps unrealistic) targets – though that does raise the question of why the booster programme, which is vital in any case, wasn’t proceeding at maximum speed hitherto.

Robust enough? There must be doubts, given the range of relatively painless measures that could have been taken, which would have bought more time. Working from home, for example, could have been extended; the use of face-coverings could have been mandated within the hospitality sector; and a specific drive to boost vaccine take-up in older schoolchildren could have been instigated. Venues could have been encouraged to ask for Covid status as a condition of entry, not least for office parties. Plan B, in other words, could have been implemented, either in whole or in part.

In reality, many people, especially those who are older or otherwise more vulnerable, may already have changed their personal behaviour by avoiding crowded spaces and wearing masks routinely – as indeed many continued to do even after the restrictions were relaxed in the summer. At the margins, invitations to social events and the like will be turned down. Not everyone needed Dr Jenny Harries, head of the UK Health Security Agency, to tell them how to protect themselves. When the words “variant of concern” started to appear on news bulletins, many would already have known what action they would take. On the other hand, some will be less willing to comply when they see the reports about a Downing Street Christmas party last year.

With some luck, the pressure on the NHS – which is already severe – will not intensify to the point where more invasive measures are needed and the country has to endure another lockdown. The government says it will take two or three weeks to understand the nature of omicron – but by then, if it is as bad as some fear, it will be too late. The weak measures now being taken are said to be “proportionate”, but that will only be known after the event. The question is, what if Boris Johnson has underestimated the threat?