An effective, rapid and technologically advanced system of testing and tracing the victims of Covid-19, and those who have been in contact with them, has always been crucial to the speed of national economical as well as clinical recovery.
Without the ability to, in the prime minister’s phrase, play whack-a-mole on any fresh outbreaks, there is slim chance of further relaxing social distancing and what remains of the lockdown regime. That, in turn, will have grim consequences for virtually every business, from fish and chip shops to the Royal Opera House.
It is lamentable. At the same time that Japan announces a fully-functioning app, Britons are told, with inadequate contrition, that the NHS app, supposed to be ready in mid-May, might be completely up and running by Christmas, by which point it will be rather too late for many.
The fact that the government is shifting the way the app works to a model based on technology provided by Apple and Google should not surprise many – it is one of a number of U-turns recently.
However, given that the app is now planned to launch in the autumn and may not involve contact tracing at that time – the department of health and social care has clearly now decided that rather than being the essential, crucial, vital part of the war on coronavirus, the app is now just one of those “nice to have” features, like heated seats on a new car. It is a convenient change of heart. Perhaps the good people of the Isle of Wight, scene of the app’s trial run, needn’t have bothered.
Britain’s NHS is extremely good, and cost effective, at many things, mainly saving lives. It has a less impressive track record in delivering IT projects on time and on budget. It has always been a mystery as to why the world’s tech giants weren’t more closely involved, so keen are ministers, usually, on outsourcing.
The security of confidential data will no doubt have been part of the discussion. There are certainly issues over this – the rules set down by both Google and Apple will greatly limit the amount of data the NHS can access, data which it was hoped could help track the spread of the virus.
It might not be so bad if the now largely manual process of tests were working well. It is not. The latest data suggests that a quarter of those who’ve tested positive have not been successfully contacted, let alone their friends, family and colleagues who may have been consequently infected.
Many thousands of known-identity coronavirus spreaders – and those around them – are at risk and the authorities are at a loss as to where to find them. Catching up with them all days later is already too late – the window of opportunity to control the virus is already shut.
Overall infection levels and the R rate seem set to move up in the coming weeks. These indicators are already at a level that likely forbids countenance of further relaxation of lockdown. If the test and trace system remains anything like its present state, it will be very difficult to avoid permanent damage to the economy and living standards.
It is a sobering thought that, at present trends, Britain could have exited the EU with no deal before the promised NHS coronavirus testing app can be downloaded.
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