Lockdowns only buy time – the failures of the test and trace system need to be fixed

Editorial: At last the prime minister is dialling down the ‘optimism bias’, which has only led to unfulfilled promises

Ministers have spent billions on an operation that is struggling to cope (Getty)

Occluded as the coronavirus crisis is by party politics, about who’s winning and losing, it is worth noting that last week was not an encouraging one for the national fight against the pandemic. 

It is true that there were some tentative signs of moderation in the rate of increase in infections, but they are still rising across the country. That is why there have had to be more lockdowns and restrictions, now covering very large swathes of the UK. 

And the reason why infections are up and lockdowns are intensifying is because Britain has failed to develop and implement a practical, rapid test and trace system. Last week saw yet more disappointing performance statistics: only 15 per cent of tests processed in a day, and only 60 per cent of targets traced over the week.

As the government’s chief scientific adviser, Sir Patrick Vallance, said the other day, one reason why test and trace is becoming less effective is because it is being overwhelmed by the volume of cases. That, however, is at least partially because the test and trace system has failed to cope when the volume of cases was far lower and localised. An opportunity to perfect a whack-a-mole system to suppress the coronavirus was wasted.

The first UK-wide lockdown in March, complete with nationally coherent simple messaging and widespread compliance worked, albeit at a cost to non-Covid-19 health and the economy. The idea was that the infection rate and case volumes would be pushed so low that local targeted action, aided by readily available testing and tracing, would keep it low and falling. It might not have prevented a global second wave reaching Britain, but the country would have faced the second wave starting from a lower level and with a more secure defence.

That did not happen. The initial lockdown was relaxed too early, before parts of the north and midlands had sufficiently suppressed the disease. The more woeful spectacle was the government making ever more grand claims about imminent success against a background of ever-greater failure. 

Of course the Covid-19 testing capacity of the nation has expanded impressively, if only because it was virtually nonexistent back in February and March, and it had to be abandoned as a useful weapon in favour of the lockdown – as appears to be happening again now.

At every point in this pandemic, the official response has fallen short; weeks have been squandered chasing “world-beating” apps and “moonshot” testing programmes. No doubt the individuals working hard in the private sector on the projects did their best, but there is a question about the competence of some and the high financial rewards paid to some consultants. If the system worked, the £12bn spent on it might be judged money well spent. But the system is clearly not working.

Few believe that the next two or three weeks of lockdown will buy sufficient time to push infections as low as needed, nor to deliver the “world-beating” test and trace system. Even Boris Johnson sounds deflated by the failures. At last, he is dialling down the boosterism, the “optimism bias” identified by George Osborne, which has only meant he has over-promised and under-delivered throughout the crisis. 

Lockdowns only ever buy some time. They work if the time is used productively. If the authorities waste that time, that is the really unforgivable failure. It is something the country will have time to contemplate during a potentially “digital” Christmas and new year break.