The prime minister is taking too big a risk with the health of the nation

Editorial: The slogan ‘Stay Alert’ gives zero guidance to people in doubt, while ‘Stay at Home’ left zero room for doubt

A woman wearing PPE reads a newspaper on the London Underground yesterday (AFP)

With unfortunate timing, Boris Johnson has published his “road map”, plus a 60-page explanatory gazetteer, to navigate England’s passage out of lockdown – just as Germany, which has been carefully relaxing its own restrictions, reports an apparent worsening in the infection rate, or R, to above 1. It would be remarkable indeed if, having ignored the lessons of Germany’s earlier successes, the government would now fail to take heed of Germany’s potential error.

To be fair to the prime minister, he recognises the challenge, and the risk. In his own words, “there can be no greater mistake” than to get this one wrong, and squander the collective efforts of the past weeks. It is, as he says, a “supremely difficult balance to strike”, and a “perilous moment”.

There is no rush to reopen the economy and society, and the measures themselves are relatively modest. There is little to object to, and they will be very welcome, particularly to hard-pressed parents.

However, neither are they trivial, and the impact on R will necessarily be to push it higher. If R, difficult as it is to measure, is already approaching 1, then even these adjustments to the current regime could push it too high, and with it another spike in infections and deaths in the coming weeks.

The prime minister wishes to see sectors such as manufacturing, construction and scientific research opening up for business again, and while the caveats about social distance are sincerely made, they will be difficult to enforce, with the best will in the world. The realities – impossibilities – of maintaining the two-metre rule on public transport will also risk further infection and the spread of the disease, just as it is coming closer to control. And now that the prohibitions on car use are in effect gone, there is little chance of restricting unnecessary journeys.

Then there is the lack of clarity and confusion inherent in the plan. The government has now had to resort to appealing to “common sense”, which is not a reliable defence against irresponsible behaviour, or honest mistakes. Everyone, as the prime minister says, understands what the government is trying to do, but they do not understand when and where their children can meet their grandparents, to give one vexed example. Permitting much more leisure use of parks and open spaces will mean more people moving in closer proximity, and that only means one thing in the time of coronavirus. The slogan “Stay Alert” gives zero guidance to people in doubt, while “Stay at Home” left zero room for doubt. There seems to be some uncertainty about whether the government’s medical and scientific advisers support the new slogan of “Stay Alert” – a worrying sign.

The prime minister is taking too big a risk with the health of the nation. With the rate of infection still high, and with the test-and-trace infrastructure so very far from completion, any relaxation of the present regime looks like a gamble. Given how badly the testing programme is going the prospective, albeit contingent, dates in the road map for reopening schools, restaurants and other businesses looks unrealistic at best.