Once again National Health Service workers have risen to the challenge. When the prime minister announced a target of getting all adults a third dose of coronavirus vaccine by 31 December, there were many who decried this as an unrealistic ambition that risked demoralising NHS staff and the country. On the contrary, it was an unrealistic ambition that inspired the NHS and the nation to go flat out to get as close to the target as possible.
After several days in which nearly 1 million people a day were given their vaccinations, the boosted booster programme continued – at a slightly lower level of intensity – on Christmas Day itself, thanks to the dedicated work of so many committed people all over the country. We pay tribute to them all.
In round numbers, about three-quarters of the eligible adult population has now had three doses of the vaccine, as the UK has overtaken Israel to become the best-protected large country. About 12 million adults remain, but as the target is to offer a vaccine to everyone who wants one, there are probably only about 6 million more people over the age of 18 who will readily take one. In addition, there may well be a significant number of people who have tested positive for the virus recently and who are therefore required to wait 28 days before getting their next vaccination.
If, therefore, the campaign can keep up a rate of close to 1 million a day over the remaining six days of the year, it will come close to hitting the target. While concerns have been expressed about vaccine refusal, in practice achieving 90 per cent coverage of the adult population is about as high as any public health campaign could hope for.
It has been inspiring to see how quickly the vaccines have been developed – even Donald Trump says so – and the speed with which they have been delivered once the scientists have performed their modern miracles has also been impressive.
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It is never too early, however, to raise our sights to the next challenge. In this country and in Israel, plans for a fourth vaccination are already being considered, and will soon need to be ramped up to avoid being taken by surprise by another variant of the virus. Beyond that, scientists expect the world to settle into a pattern of repeated vaccinations, possibly adjusting the vaccines to take account of mutations in the virus. In the battle between science and the virus, the hopeful scenario is that equilibrium is close to being reached – far more quickly than could ever have been imagined, saving millions of lives as a result.
But the fourth vaccination is not the most urgent global priority, when six out of seven people in Africa haven’t even had their first. As former prime ministers Tony Blair and Gordon Brown have urged, we should be using the success of our Christmas booster rush to prompt us to make a new year’s resolution to help vaccinate the world.
The triumph of science over the virus should give us something to celebrate this Christmas, but it should also make us redouble our efforts to ensure that the benefits of such brilliant human ingenuity should be spread as equitably as possible.
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