Follow the money: Conservative donors know that Britain is crumbling

Editorial: Funds for the Tory party from wealthy individuals are drying up, pointing to a change of government

Donors do not seem prepared to bet on the Conservatives turning things around in time for the election next year (Getty/PA)

Leading indicators of a change of government include defections, companies buying space at the opposition party’s annual conference, and the drying up of donations to the governing party.

As Rishi Sunak surveys the dashboard, he should see the warning signs flashing. Zac Goldsmith, the green Conservative peer, was threatening to defect to Labour the other day. Admittedly, he is a friend of Boris Johnson’s so his motives may be mixed, and no MP has crossed the floor of the House of Commons since Christian Wakeford in January last year.

But Labour is gleeful about the number of businesses signing up for its party conference in Liverpool next month, and about the number of business leaders queuing up for audiences with Sir Keir Starmer and Rachel Reeves.

And The Independent’s analysis of Conservative funding reveals that the party relies increasingly on a tiny number of rich donors. Since Mr Sunak became prime minister nearly a year ago, four-fifths of all individual donations to the party came from just 10 people.

One of them is not Mohamed Amersi, the telecoms tycoon, who has given £750,000 to the Conservatives in the past, and who told The Independent that he will open his wallet to Labour. “I feel that the county needs help in many places in the North, in the East, where societies are broken,” he said. “Crime, joblessness, poverty... these are all huge problems.”

Mr Amersi said that he is “happy to support” Labour MPs if they have “a strategy on how best to deal with their constituency”.

Other former donors reflect the disillusion that the opinion polls tell us is felt by the general electorate. Sir Rocco Forte, who donated to the Conservatives before the last election, said: “There is a lack of impetus and competence which does not surprise me has led to an increasing lack of Tory donors and declining Tory coffers.”

It should be said that The Independent is not very much in favour of political parties being so dependent on a small number of rich individuals for their funds. One of the things that could be said in Jeremy Corbyn’s favour, when he led the Labour Party, was that he raised huge sums in small donations from the half million or so members who flocked to his standard.

On the other hand, we are not in favour of expanding public funding for political parties beyond the already substantial sums spent in Short money, named after Ted Short, the Labour former leader of the Commons. He was enlightened enough to see the case for some support from the public purse for opposition parties. It would also be wrong, in a free society, to prevent people from spending their money on political parties if that is what they want – so long as significant sums are disclosed and the rules against buying influence and against foreign funding are rigorously enforced.

So individual donations will always be an important source of party funds – and therefore an important indicator of parties’ political fortunes. The figures recently published by the Electoral Commission for donations in 2022 revealed a big imbalance in Labour’s favour, with Sir Keir’s party raising £47m against just £31m for the Conservatives.

Admittedly, that was the year of three prime ministers, two leadership elections and a crash-and-burn mini-budget, but what is significant about our analysis of party funding since Mr Sunak became prime minister is that it does not reveal that people with money are prepared to bet on the Conservatives turning things around in time for the election next year – or January 2025 at the very latest.

If you want to know which way politics is going, follow the money.