If the SNP and Lib Dems want to stop Brexit, they should focus on a Final Say, rather than a general election
Editorial: The two parties say they want to end the Brexit stalemate. What they don’t say is that an early election would serve their interests
No political party is being entirely honest when it comes to the date of the next general election. Boris Johnson wants to railroad his Brexit deal through parliament and hold an election on 12 December. He petulantly put his EU (Withdrawal) Bill on the backburner when MPs rejected his totally inadequate timetable for approving it.
Labour insists it wants an election once the threat of a no-deal Brexit has been lifted. But it will not necessarily vote for one even if the EU extends the UK’s membership to 31 January. The real reason for Labour’s caution is that, while Jeremy Corbyn is happy to see an early contest, many of his MPs fear the party would suffer a crushing defeat.
Two other opposition parties, the Liberal Democrats and the Scottish National Party, have proposed an election on 9 December, but before parliament gives its verdict on his deal. Their idea is clever in one sense: Labour would not be able to veto it. The government motion to be debated today is under the Fixed-term Parliaments Act, which requires at least 434 (two-thirds) of the 650 MPs to vote for it – in practice, Tory and Labour MPs. In contrast, the Lib Dem-SNP bill requires only a simple majority of those voting.
The two parties say they want to end the Brexit stalemate. What they don’t say is that an early election would serve their interests. The Lib Dems would have a strong brand in a pre-Brexit election as the party of Remain. What their pitch would be in a post-Brexit contest is far from clear. The SNP is confident of making gains in a December poll, which would conveniently take place before the trial in the new year of its former leader Alex Salmond on charges of attempted rape and sexual assault.
Although ministers dismissed the Lib Dem-SNP move as a “stunt”, there are signs Mr Johnson might come round to something similar if, as expected, his election plan is blocked.
The Commons should not embrace the Lib Dem-SNP proposal, and the two parties themselves should think twice about it. Both support a Final Say referendum, a much better way to end the Brexit impasse than an election in which many people would vote on other issues – rightly so, when choosing a government for the next five years.
The Lib Dems have concluded it is “highly unlikely” the current parliament will approve a referendum. Yet the proposition has not been tested since April, when it was defeated by just 12 votes. More MPs have come round to the idea since. The right course would be for Mr Johnson to put his “great new deal” on the front burner, so MPs could scrutinise it properly. They could address a customs union, parliament’s role in approving a future UK-EU trade deal, the risk of no deal when the transitional period ends in December 2020, and a referendum. It is possible that there might not be a majority for a Final Say vote during the bill’s passage. But if MPs declined to approve it, a referendum would win more converts, notably among the 21 former Tory MPs who lost the whip for opposing no deal. At that point, a majority of MPs might back a referendum.
Given parliament’s track record in voting against rather than for Brexit proposals, the issue will probably have to be resolved by the people – either in an election or a Final Say vote. It is obvious why Mr Johnson would prefer an election. He could win an overall majority with 35 per cent of the vote, thanks to the Remain vote being split between opposition parties. His deal bears so little resemblance to what the Leave campaign offered in 2016 that it should require the support of at least 51 per cent.
It is less obvious why the Lib Dems and SNP would prefer an election, other than in their own narrow party interests. They should not give up hope of winning a referendum, and should continue to make the case for one.
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