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Your support makes all the difference.As the nation voted in the European elections, the Conservative Party turned to the question in which it is most deeply interested: who will be the next prime minister and when?
Theresa May, in the twilight of her office, sent a government whip, Mark Spencer, to the House of Commons today to announce a delay to the withdrawal agreement bill. For “delay” read “end”. The cabinet had made it clear that it could not support this device for asking parliament to vote for a fourth time on her Brexit deal.
Thus she has evacuated the last ditch defending her leadership from the oncoming hordes. The only matter to be decided now is the timetable for replacing her.
She may give Sir Graham Brady, chairman of the committee representing Conservative MPs, a date tomorrow. More likely, she will try to put it off until next week, when the results of today’s elections are known, or to the week after, when parliament returns to Westminster. She will welcome Donald Trump on his state visit that week, and she will probably represent the UK at the G20 in Japan at the end of June. But it seems that the Conservative Party is determined to have a new prime minister in 10 Downing Street by the time parliament rises for the summer recess in about the third week of July.
That means a leadership election within weeks.
However, as The Independent has repeatedly pointed out, installing a new prime minister will not break the Brexit deadlock. Any candidate to replace Ms May would presumably declare their willingness to leave the EU without a deal.
But this – apart from being unwise – would be opposed by a majority of the House of Commons. Would Boris Johnson, say, seek office on a pledge to try to defy parliament?
We think not. That means a new prime minister would have to find another way. A general election is not an attractive option for the Conservative Party. It would be a delusion too far to imagine that it would produce a clear majority in the Commons for a no-deal exit.
In the end, the only way out of the impasse is another referendum – and we expect that whoever succeeded Ms May would be driven inexorably in this direction. There is a paradox in this, in that it was her plan to allow the Commons to vote on a referendum that helped finally to kill her withdrawal agreement bill.
But it may be, as Nixon went to China, that only a new prime minister who actually voted Leave three years ago could legislate for a new referendum. This is not without risk for those who want the UK to stay in the EU. In order to be respected as legitimate, a referendum would have to include a no-deal exit as one of the options, as even Tony Blair accepted this week.
Whether the House of Commons would allow that is an open question, but it may be that the risk that the country might vote for such an outcome is the price that has to be paid for the chance of cancelling Brexit.
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