The Conservative Party should now be considering life after Boris Johnson

Editorial: It is axiomatic that any political leader who faces a vote of confidence is doomed, sooner or later

(Brian Adcock)

To adapt the prime minister’s most successful slogan, he is stuffed and oven-ready, but is yet to be placed lovingly in the cooker at gas mark 7 and thoroughly basted in his own rich juices. He should be done by Christmas, though, and in all likelihood will be roasted long before that. The Tory party should now be considering its next course.

It is axiomatic that any political leader who faces a vote of confidence is doomed, because it is proof that they are no longer unassailable. Though in radically different circumstances, leaders from Neil Kinnock, Margaret Thatcher and John Major to Iain Duncan Smith, Theresa May and Jeremy Corbyn have all faced such formal challenges or votes, and it has not ended well for any of them.

A leadership challenge is the beginning of the end, whether it be won or lost, and whether it takes days or years. Sooner or later, their party or the electorate will finish them off.

Of course, this time it may be different, because Boris Johnson is one of life’s rule-breakers, which can be a good as well as a bad thing. This unstable iconoclast has won against the odds and shown bravery at times, such as when he made a tilt for mayor of London against Ken Livingstone when no one else wanted the gig.

He may surprise again, but the grain of politics (not to mention 148 of his MPs) seems to be against him. The Tories have been in office for 12 years, and they look and feel exhausted. Mr Johnson is unable to offer his party inspiration or a sense of mission. He is deeply unpopular, and even divides his own party members.

The by-elections in Wakefield and Tiverton & Honiton coincide with the sixth anniversary of the Brexit referendum, a poignant reminder of promises unfulfilled. There are some more scandals waiting to break in Westminster, and no one can say whether the prime minister will find himself in further scrapes. The Commons privileges committee might conclude he did not tell parliament the whole truth about Partygate, and could censure him. In extremis, he might face a recall petition and a by-election in his own highly marginal constituency.

The economy is set for a bout of inflation and recession, and there is more Brexit chaos and post-pandemic disruption on the way. Threatening a trade war with Europe is particularly damaging to business investment, without which there will be no improvements in living standards or productivity.

The balance of probabilities, then, is that things will get worse before they get better, and it’s not obvious that the prime minister is the right leader for such tough times. Apart from some hopelessly devoted figures such as Nadine Dorries, and the odd misguided ideologue, Tory MPs have a purely transactional relationship with him. As soon as it becomes apparent that he will cost them their seats in parliament, their ministerial jobs, or both, they are liable to ditch him.

Mr Johnson’s main strengths are negative. Getting shot of him is a hassle (albeit worth the effort). The implosion of Rishi Sunak means there is no obvious alternative on his side, though Jeremy Hunt would surely do a better job; and Sir Keir Starmer’s relatively weak personal poll ratings at least open up the possibility that Mr Johnson might once again outshine him.

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But the greater gamble for the Tory party would be to keep Mr Johnson. First, the public do not wish to be led by a liar, and they aren’t willing to “move on” from 170,000 excess Covid deaths. Second, Mr Johnson has proven himself curiously unable to come up with attractive vote-winning policies or, indeed, any rationale for what he and his government are actually doing. He is not unpopular because he is taking tough but necessary decisions, as has traditionally been the case; he is unpopular because he is unable to take any kind of decision and stick to it. He wants everything both ways – cakeism – and governs by slogan. It doesn’t work.

The prime minister, therefore, remains a clear and present danger to the future of his party and the future of the union, and that will in due course guarantee his destruction, one way or another.

It’s only a matter of time.