If Boris Johnson can’t deliver Brexit, he might not last longer than 99 days

The parliamentary arithmetic facing Boris Johnson is even worse than his embattled predecessor Theresa May had to contend with. To break the deadlock, a referendum might be his only option

According to Boris Johnson himself, his government will be a “DUD” – Deliver Brexit, Unite the country and Defeat Jeremy Corbyn. He has exactly 99 days to deliver the first, the pre-condition of the others. Though it is very likely he may well end up failing on all three.

No sooner had Johnson completed his surprisingly weak acceptance speech in Westminster than the European Commission assassinated his Brexit plan. Frans Timmermans, the European Commission’s first vice president, reiterated that the EU was happy to redraft the political declaration, and was happy to meet the new British leader, but that renegotiating the UK-EU Withdrawal Agreement is impossible.

Of course Johnson and his allies always dismiss such talk as mere posturing, and gamble that the EU will soon cave in when they are threatened with no-deal Brexit and the UK withholding the £39bn “divorce settlement”. But a gamble is what that amounts to, and one in which the UK risks inflicting far more economic damage on itself than the much larger EU would suffer. It is an odd sort of threat.

Johnson also faces a House of Commons where, even with the pact with the Democratic Unionists, he barely commands any majority at all. The withdrawal of the whip from Charlie Elphicke brings the majority down to two, and the near-certain loss of Brecon and Radnorshire in next week’s by-election will take it down to one. The DUP confidence and supply agreement with the Conservatives is also up for renewal, and another awkward negotiation for Johnson and his team. Arraigned on the benches behind him and his Brexit government, Johnson will find ranks of former ministerial colleagues adamantly opposed to his Brexit strategy, who are dedicating the careers to outlawing no-deal Brexit.

So, if anything, the parliamentary arithmetic facing Johnson is even worse than that which his embattled predecessor Theresa May had to contend with.

His wheeze to threaten to prorogue parliament has already been undermined by the Commons reasserting itself, and the same should apply to making no deal impossible without specific parliamentary approval, which will not be forthcoming.

And so, despite all the excitement, nothing has changed – as Johnson’s predecessor used to say. Of course Johnson might succeed (after all, nothing is impossible) and wrangle a modestly amended deal out of Brussels and somehow manage to push it through the House of Commons. But even if he could do that, it is difficult to see how this can all be realistically achieved by 31 October. The deal may be done by 31 October, as Johnson is careful sometimes to formulate it, but the formalities of leaving the EU may take far longer. The balance of probabilities is that Brexit will not be delivered, and the country will not even be able to agree on a no-deal Brexit. A Final Say referendum, in preference to a general election, will, sooner or later, find its way onto the agenda of the Johnson cabinet. At least that way they can win a mandate of their policy that cannot be claimed from the result of the 2016 referendum.

As for uniting the country, Johnson may turn out to alienate even more people than May managed. Despite his cosmopolitan ancestry, he is the most English of figures, right down to his accent and Eton education. He declares himself a stout defender of the Union of the “awesome foursome”, but is viewed with suspicion and loathing in Scotland and Northern Ireland, not least for his stance on Brexit (which they voted against in 2016). As a former mayor of London who has reversed most of the liberal pro-EU policy positions he took while in City Hall, he is also unpopular.

Which leaves Johnson with the final D (of his acronym) – defeating Corbyn. With a Brexit deal done, he has a chance of winning an election, because the Brexit Party and the Liberal Democrats will both lose some of their raison d’être as Brexit-oriented movements. Some of their support would switch back to the Tories. Still, the economy could quite easily lurch into post-Brexit stagnation even with the transition period in place, and that would be a poor backdrop to an election campaign.

Johnson will no doubt be keen to win his own mandate from the people – but he will need to deliver Brexit first. Otherwise he might not last much longer than his first 99 days.