A prime minister who loves to announce good news will have some good and bad pre-Christmas tidings when he unveils his “Covid winter plan” in the Commons today. He will offer some comfort, but not much joy.
Boris Johnson, who wants headlines about “saving” Christmas, will be able to announce a temporary relaxation of some coronavirus restrictions for the festive period. Hopefully, they will apply throughout the UK after talks with the devolved administrations in Edinburgh, Cardiff and Belfast; the virus will not respect national boundaries.
It will still not be a “normal Christmas”, as Rishi Sunak, the chancellor, acknowledged on the Sunday TV shows. But a time-limited easing to allow family gatherings is sensible, since many people would surely have ignored any ban, and would then be more likely to break the rules in future.
When the national lockdown ends on 2 December, the quid pro quo will be a tougher system of local and regional curbs in England than previously. This was discussed by the cabinet yesterday, with a final decision on which areas will be in which tiers delayed until Thursday so ministers can take account of the most recent data.
Although there are hopeful signs that infection and hospital admission rates have levelled off in some areas in the highest tier-three restrictions before the lockdown, there is no scope for seasonal complacency. Even the welcome breakthroughs on vaccines should not allow the government to ease up, since the majority of the population will not be immunised until next spring at the earliest.
Until then, it seems, many people will have to live with limits on households mixing in order to create room for schools and most shops, pubs and restaurants to be open at what, for the retail and hospitality sectors, is a critical time of year. There are worrying predictions that three out of four hospitality businesses could go under if restrictions last until February. They will be watching anxiously to see whether people from more than one household can meet in pubs and restaurants.
Mr Johnson must again perform a difficult balancing act between public health and the economy, and between the scientific experts worried about any Christmas relaxation and the “economy first” brigade on the Conservative benches.
His approach should take account of the lessons learnt this year. For example, scientific advisers believe the “rule of six” has made little impact in tier-one areas in the absence of other curbs. Similarly, the 10pm curfew for pubs and restaurants should be dropped; it has proved at best ineffective and at worst counterproductive as people often leave at the same time and then gather in the street.
At a time when Mr Johnson needs to rebuild relations with his rebellious Tory MPs, he should ignore the siren voices of the 70 threatening to vote against the new regime in England. They claim the cure might be worse than the disease, want to put the economy first and are demanding a full cost-benefit analysis on the proposed tougher rules. If they refuse to back the government in the Commons vote on the new system, Mr Johnson might be in the uncomfortable position of relying on the support of the Labour opposition. But that would be preferable to softening the proposals that would risk another spike in infections and possibly even a third lockdown in England.
The shadow of coronavirus will fall over Mr Sunak’s government-wide spending review on Wednesday. He might announce yet more money for NHS Test and Trace to allow mass testing of people twice a week so as many as possible can return to leading something like normal lives. The chancellor appears to be resisting calls to provide more financial support for people on low incomes who are told to self-isolate. The poor response rate is weakening the fight against the virus, and will undermine the new push on testing. Mr Sunak should think again.
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