Boris Johnson’s fate is still partly in the hands of the European Union

Editorial: Although the new no-deal legislation compels an unwilling prime minister to request an extension to Article 50 under certain circumstances, there is no guarantee that the European Union would grant it

Rarely has British politics been so polarised, and rarely has it been so unpredictable. It has probably never been both.

Boris Johnson’s first disastrous week as a full-time prime minister is a now familiar catalogue of successive disasters. As Mr Johnson himself once quipped, in the days when he was still funny: “My friends, as I have discovered myself, there are no disasters, only opportunities. And, indeed, opportunities for fresh disasters.”

And yet he is, as far as can be told, ahead in the polls, and he outstrips Jeremy Corbyn on most of the qualities desired in a premier. Neither of those achievements may be saying much, given the opposition’s low ebb, but it is the hope to which Mr Johnson’s party must cling as it observes its takeover by Dominic Cummings, and its conversion into a carbon copy of the Brexit Party, minus Nigel Farage.

The fact is that Mr Johnson could cease to be prime minister in 10 days, or could conceivably occupy No 10 for 10 years. No one can say with any confidence how a general election this autumn would play out. The predictions range from a healthy majority for Mr Johnson through to various pacts with the DUP or the Brexit Party, right across to Labour emerging as the largest single party forming a minority administration. There is even talk of Mr Johnson soon resigning in order to force a general election, even if that means a tenure for Mr Corbyn as prime minister.

If there was a general election and Mr Johnson, with support from other parties, managed to win his own mandate, his position to force through his version of no-deal Brexit would be enhanced. He would have purged the dissidents from his parliamentary party; he could pick a new, more pliant speaker of the House of Commons; he could abolish the troublesome Fixed-term Parliaments Act; and he could get on with his agenda.

He could be in office until 2024 and, if he ran again, until 2029, when he will still be only 65 years of age. Britain would be reshaped in the image of Boris Johnson. That is something his enemies might wish to reflect upon as they make their own electoral calculations. Or he could be gone shortly after the weekend he and Carrie Symonds are spending at Balmoral. No doubt the Queen might offer him the benefit of her experience in such matters, though she too will have seen nothing quite like this, or him.

It is dizzying stuff and, what is less well covered, partly dependent on the reactions and decisions of the European Union, not just those of Mr Johnson or the House of Commons. For although the new no-deal legislation compels an unwilling prime minister to request an extension to Article 50 under certain circumstances, there is no guarantee that the European Union would grant it.

President Macron of France is openly hostile to the notion of indulging the British in their indecision, and the chief EU negotiator, Michel Barnier, has spoken ominously about a “moment of truth” approaching. To have the UK effectively expelled from the EU by the French is a perfectly feasible possibility – but given German anxieties and Chancellor Merkel’s capacity for patience, one of the less likely outcomes.

As for Brexit, it now seems impossible, in practice, for it to be enacted in any form by 31 October. If Mr Johnson refuses to request an extension to Article 50, which he will be legally required to do, then he should go. But his successor will of course be faced with the same set of circumstances and the same dilemmas. If he or she doesn’t come from the current cabinet, then the Queen should send for the leader of the opposition. If Mr Corbyn turns down the offer to form a government, then she would instead send for another figure willing to do so.

The now independent Ken Clarke is an obvious choice. Yet what that individual’s policy would be remains a mystery. It might be outlandish but, conducting a thought experiment for a moment, it would be perfectly logical to recall Theresa May and have her put her deal to parliament for a fourth attempt, faute de mieux. If that is where Britain is destined to end up, she might as well have the honour of making the breakthrough.

The Queen is said to have asked, at an early stage in the Brexit process, why the current crop of politicians seems to be so poor at governing the country. The answer to that is obvious: such challenges as these have never been faced in this way before and the constitution – to say nothing of the personalities involved – is not up to the task.