Angela Merkel’s party is wise to choose continuity over change

Editorial: The ruling Christian Democratic Union has chosen Armin Laschet, proponent of a ‘level-headed approach and avoiding extremes’, as its leader

Armin Laschet, with the woman he hopes to succeed in September (Thilo Schmuelgen/Reuters)

Politics is often a matter of alternating opposites, as parties and nations choose leaders who seem best able to put right the faults of their predecessor. Thus calm and unifying John Major succeeded strident and divisive Margaret Thatcher. Gordon Brown, Labour to the core, succeeded interloper Tony Blair. Boris Johnson, disruptive Brexit believer, succeeded Theresa May, who was neither of those things. 

Germany today, though, is in a different position. It has been led for 15 years by Angela Merkel, who has weathered periods of unpopularity to bask in unprecedented approval – so much so that she has been able to choose the time of her departure, namely the next general election, expected in September this year. 

Looking ahead to that election, her party, the Christian Democratic Union/Christian Social Union, has a commanding lead in the opinion polls, averaging about 37 per cent, with the Greens in second place on 18 per cent. The huge boost to the CDU/CSU early last year, derived from Ms Merkel’s solid handling of coronavirus, has been sustained. The Social Democrats, the CDU’s traditional rivals and its “grand coalition” partner, are on 15 per cent, while the anti-immigrant AfD (Alternative for Germany) is fourth on 10 per cent. 

Little wonder, therefore, that yesterday’s online congress of the CDU chose the candidate it thought most likely to continue Ms Merkel’s success, namely Armin Laschet, leader of the largest state, North Rhine-Westphalia. Mr Laschet is like Ms Merkel in that he is cautious and a little dull, telling delegates he stands for “a level-headed approach and avoiding extremes”.  

More than his rivals, Friedrich Merz and Norbert Rottgen, he has always been loyal to Ms Merkel, avoiding public differences that might have seemed designed to take advantage of any slippage in her popularity. In particular, he supported her throughout the controversy over her brave decision to accept hundreds of thousands of refugees and asylum seekers in Germany since 2015. 

Mr Laschet’s victory does not mean that he will be the centre-right’s candidate for chancellor in September. The CDU’s Bavarian sister party, the CSU, may want to press the claim of its leader, Markus Soder, a charismatic figure who is more popular in the opinion polls than Mr Laschet. 

Jens Spahn, the health minister in Ms Merkel’s government, who has been prominent in the coronavirus crisis, is another possible contender – although the prudent Mr Laschet has taken the precaution of forming a pact with him, by which Mr Spahn would in effect be his running mate. 

Much depends on the course of the virus and the vaccination programme in Germany over the next few months, with Mr Spahn and Mr Soder engaged in a shadow debate about vaccinations: Mr Soder advocates compulsory jabs while Mr Spahn emphasises education and information. 

However, Mr Laschet is in a strong position now to succeed Ms Merkel as chancellor, because if he secures the CDU/CSU nomination as candidate, the chances are that the German electorate, too, will choose continuity over change.