A risk for Syria offers a chance for the region

Would that all foreign interventions ended as this one. Syria bowed out of Lebanon yesterday with a modest farewell parade in the Bekaa Valley, a medal ceremony, a wreath-laying and an orderly convoy of buses. Within three hours, Syria had notified the UN that its withdrawal was complete, in line with Security Council resolution 1559. From announcement of intent to departure, a military involvement of 29 years' duration was over in just seven weeks.

Would that all foreign interventions ended as this one. Syria bowed out of Lebanon yesterday with a modest farewell parade in the Bekaa Valley, a medal ceremony, a wreath-laying and an orderly convoy of buses. Within three hours, Syria had notified the UN that its withdrawal was complete, in line with Security Council resolution 1559. From announcement of intent to departure, a military involvement of 29 years' duration was over in just seven weeks.

While in many respects, Syria's retreat has been a textbook withdrawal, the circumstances were far from simple, nor is the situation that is left behind. The immediate trigger - the assassination of Lebanon's former prime minister, Rafik Hariri, widely blamed on the Syrians - remains to be investigated. The extent to which Syrian influence will linger is also uncertain.

The signs so far are that Syria is not dissembling when it says all its troops and intelligence officers have left. The resignation of Lebanon's security chief, who cited the changing political situation, suggests Syria's patronage has expired. But a long-standing intelligence presence is not necessarily extinguished overnight.

The demonstrations and counter-demonstrations that followed the death of Mr Hariri exposed also the continuing divide in Lebanon. It was apparent then that the Syrian presence was losing what remained of its capacity to foster stability. The question now is whether Lebanon's rival groups can find a way of coexisting productively and in peace. It is crucial in this respect that the parliamentary elections planned for the end of May take place on time and are judged to be free and fair. A chapter has ended; it is up to the Lebanese to determine whether the next chapter paves the way for democratic government or something more malign.

A further uncertainty concerns the fall-out for Syria. In accomplishing the withdrawal, President Bashar Assad has shown commendable respect for international institutions. This, like his unexpected attendance at Pope John Paul II's funeral, suggests a desire to play by diplomatic rules. In fact, with Washington exerting pressure over Iraq, and Syrian support for Palestinian militants, his options were few. Much of the reforming zeal Mr Assad brought with him to power three years ago has dissipated. The best that can be said is that he has so far played a weak hand not too badly. But retreats and returning troops have a habit of weakening vulnerable rulers. This is quite as perilous a time for Syria as it is for its Lebanese neighbour.

The hope must be that nothing untoward intervenes to sour the wider regional mood, which is as positive as it has been for many years. Israel is preparing to withdraw from Gaza at the start of the summer, with a selective withdrawal from West Bank settlements to follow. A ceasefire ordered by the new Palestinian president has been holding. An overhaul of the security services, long demanded by Israel, is under way.

The United States is actively re-engaged in the Middle East - at least, this is what President Bush has promised. And so, somewhat more surprisingly, is Russia. President Putin is making the first ever visit by a serving Russian leader to Israel today. He has also visited Egypt. If everyone is working to the same end - the establishment of a viable Palestinian state and its peaceful coexistence with Israel - improved Israel-Syria relations could follow.

What happens in the coming weeks in Lebanon will not by itself determine the future of the Middle East. It will, however, set a tone. For without stability in Lebanon, the prospects for stability across the region will be slim.