Europe and Russia are inevitably codependent, and Donald Trump's actions will not change that

It would be very unwise to assume that when there is a change of administration in the US, American policy will become more supportive of Europe. The US, already a larger economy than the EU, will focus on its great strategic struggle against China

Donald Trump is right about one thing: Germany is hugely dependent on Russia. If you got 70 per cent of your energy from that one source, as the US president claimed yesterday at the Nato summit, you would certainly be very much in hock to their power. Actually it is not quite as bad as that, for this number refers to Germany’s gas imports rather than its total energy supplies; but the harsh truth is that were Russia to switch off the gas tap during a harsh winter, Germany would be in dire trouble.

It is also true that Germany still depends on the US for its defence. The number of US troops there is much diminished from the Cold War days, but there are still 35,000 stationed in Germany. There is talk of forward to Poland on the grounds that this is Nato’s front line, but whether this will happen is doubtful, given the president’s concerns about Europe’s need to defend itself rather than relying on America. They may simply be withdrawn, as apparently a majority of Germans now want. (Incidentally, the UK still has an armoured brigade in Germany, though the current plans are that it will be withdrawn by the end of next year.)

All this makes for an uncomfortable reality were Russia to seek to increase its influence over, obviously, the Baltic states. Europe could not defend itself and it would freeze without Russian gas.

Now look at this through the long lens of history. A western Europe dependent on Russia for raw materials is not new, though 150 years ago it was timber and minerals rather than oil and gas. Whatever happens Russia will have profound influence over eastern Europe, as it did before the Russian Revolution and the First World War. So what is happening now in the Crimea is history reasserting itself, albeit in a way the west finds deeply distasteful. Arguably, had the European Union behaved differently after the breakup of the Soviet Union and accommodated Russian concerns, it would feel less threatened now.

But Russia needs Europe too. It needs a good relationship with Germany, because that is its largest market for gas. It needs to broaden its exports away from overdependence on raw materials, and the obvious market is Europe. It also needs European know-how and investment if it is to secure a better future for its people.

Now think forward 20 years, when the present generation of politicians are long gone. It is very hard to see the US still protecting Europe, whoever is the president then. At some stage US forces will be withdrawn, as British forces are being withdrawn. The UK will not be a member of the EU and this will lead to a gradual economic detachment, as well as the immediate political detachment. So the EU, assuming it survives (as it expect it will in some form), will be on its own. Given its poor demographic outlook, it will be economically weaker than it is now, though still relatively wealthy by world standards.

The question then will be how it might build an arc of friendship around it. Might it, for example, offer some sort of associate EU membership status to Russia? That is impossible now for obvious reasons, but regimes change and attitudes change. Russia would have to be charmed into such a relationship, while Europe would have to accept that it would become a looser association. It is even possible that the UK could become a model for associate membership, difficult though that looks at the moment.

The basic point here is that it would be very unwise to assume that when there is a change of administration in the US, American policy will become more supportive of Europe. The US, already a larger economy than the EU, will focus on its great strategic struggle against China. In that sense Trump is carrying on a reorientation of policy away from Europe and towards Asia that was started by Barack Obama. They are very different people and make a very different presentation of their objectives, but actually are pointing in a broadly similar direction. US troop reductions in Europe were carried on by President Obama.

It will be difficult to come to terms with much of what President Trump is saying, and it will be difficult to observe what will surely be a warm meeting with Vladimir Putin without a sense of distaste. But Europe should know where it stands.