Donald Trump has many flaws, but he deserves credit for his surprising success on the Korean peninsula
It is dawning on Kim Jong-un that the best way for his family and the Workers’ Party of Korea to stay in charge is to make the Korean people as wealthy and happy as their neighbours
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Your support makes all the difference.Donald Trump, by common consent, is not an especially likeable man. This applies as much to his politics as his personality, though he obviously enjoys a deal of support in some quarters of American society, sufficient to deliver the White House to him in 2016. Even so, the reaction of most progressives to anything Mr Trump does is that of revulsion, horror and bewilderment.
This is usually correct. However, the president’s audacious initiative to make peace with North Korea – surprising as it has been to some – is one of the few unalloyed positives to emerge from the Trump administration.
If relations proceed as hoped, the threat of thermonuclear destruction that hangs over the entire region will be lifted. The peoples of Korea, north and south, Japan, China, eastern Russia, and all the others who have had to put up with the bizarre and dubious antics of successive Kims, can sleep easier in their beds, spend less on defence and get on with making their respective countries prosperous. It is good for world peace. The fact that it is also good for Donald Trump’s reputation at home doesn’t affect that. It may even be President Trump’s one abiding legacy. It would be a substantial one.
There is, in other words, no need to be sour about the summit in Hanoi between President Trump and General Secretary Kim Jong-un. It is the second such meeting, after the session in Singapore last June. That first encounter was principally about symbolism, about the moment when these two extraordinary egos shook hands. The “optics” of their handshake was something that Mr Trump reportedly obsessed about; if so, that is perfectly understandable.
The symbolism this time round in Hanoi – with those echoes of the Vietnam War and the north-south division of that nation echoing round the conference chambers – will also matter.
Where once the two insulted each other – “little rocket man” meets “the dotard” – now they can scarcely contain their affection. Strange as that may be, it is again good news for the stability of the region.
However, we are now moving to the stage where the modalities of denuclearisation of the Korean peninsula have to be addressed in substance. There is a grand bargain to be had here, and the outlines are clear. North Koreans have made their point that they have the capacity to threaten the peace of the region, even without nuclear weapons. Seoul lies only 35 miles south of the North Korean frontier and one of the largest armies in the world; it remains vulnerable. Even if North Korea abandons its nuclear programme, everyone understands it would recommence it immediately if the regime felt threatened.
Nonetheless, the fact that Pyongyang has agreed to the possibility of giving up its nuclear deterrent is a huge step forward. In return for that, Pyongyang can expect two things. First a guarantee, tacit or otherwise, that Washington has no interest in regime change and that the Kim dynasty is secure. Second, the end of sanctions and more investment in the North Korean economy from South Korea, Japan, China and the US.
This is what President Trump’s windy talk about North Korea’s economic potential is all about. It is easy to disparage, given that North Korea has only recently experienced severe famine resulting in episodes of cannibalism, but the example of South Korea, Japan, Singapore, China and indeed Vietnam show what can be achieved when capitalist methods are unleashed in east Asia. Great economies have risen from colonialism, the ruination of wars and communism.
The problem for Mr Kim will be how to oversee economic growth and embrace free markets – and with them greater access to foreign media and entertainment – while retaining political control. Fortunately he has a model of such development next door: the transformation of China over the last four decades, from backwater to economic and military superpower. “Capitalism with Chinese characteristics” is how the Communist Party of China describes its blend of political autocracy and partial economic reform. “Capitalism with Korean characteristics” could be an attractive path for North Korea to follow.
Perhaps it is dawning on Mr Kim that the best way for his family and the Workers’ Party of Korea to stay in charge is to make the Korean people as wealthy and happy as their neighbours to the north and south. They would certainly be freer, and North Korea’s appalling record on human rights might improve as the need to terrorise the population subsides.
Donald Trump has messed up America’s relations, no doubt, with Mexico, Canada, much of the Arab world, the European Union, Nato, China, the World Trade Organisation and, arguably, Russia. He has insulted El Salvador, Haiti, Sweden and “African nations”. He has played an especially dangerous game in Venezuela and Syria. He is a climate change denier. He disdains human rights at home and abroad. He is wrecking the global system of free trade. He is a misogynist and shows too much indulgence towards racist extremists. He wants to deny poorer Americans healthcare and educational opportunities.
That is all true. But we should at least give him the credit for this one important success, where he has made more progress than any of his predecessors, and wish him well with it.
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