The indictment has helped Trump in the primaries – but there’s a catch

Republicans are sticking by Trump. That might hurt them with voting blocs they need to win back

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It’s been more than a week since a grand jury indicted former president Donald Trump for mishandling classified documents related to national security.

We reported from North Carolina in the days after the indictment that people at the state GOP convention rallied around the twice-impeached and now twice-indicted former president, even as former vice president Mike Pence and Florida Gov Ron DeSantis spoke at the same conference. But that is purely anecdotal evidence and does not say much about the GOP writ large.

Now we have data to dig into: The indictment either didn’t change or boosted the former president’s standings among Republican primary voters. An NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist poll released Friday showed that 83 per cent of Republicans think that Mr Trump should stay in the race and almost two-in-three Republicans said they will continue to support Mr Trump if he remains in the race.

Similarly, Mr Trump seems to continue to have support among Republicans across the board, as 53 per cent of Republican women and 46 per cent of Republican men think he has done nothing wrong.

That seems to match a Reuters/Ipsos poll which found that 81 per cent of self-identified Republicans said politics drove the case against Mr Trump. Moreover, 43 per cent of them said they preferred Mr Trump.

That spells bad news for Mr Trump’s closest competitor, Mr DeSantis, as he only garners about 22 per cent of self-identified Republicans’ support. Mr DeSantis has tried turning his fortunes around lately, campaigning in Nevada and even trying his hand at bartending and joking he’d serve attendees “anything except Bud Light,” in an attempt to rekindle his strength by focusing on conservatives’ outrage.

But as I’ve written before, most Republicans are in a prison of their own making when it comes to Mr Trump because they consistently excused his behaviour for years. Now, to be considered a Republican in good standing means defending Mr Trump to the extent his opponents cannot even draw a contrast or say his legal challenges make him a political liability.

The former president continues to have a vise grip on Republican Party. But there are significant caveats: the charges might hurt the former president with voters outside of his base. The NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist poll found that 50 per cent of independent voters thought that Mr Trump has done something wrong or illegal.

In addition, 59 per cent of white college-educated women, a vital demographic Republicans must win back, think the same, and 52 per cent of suburban residents think he did something wrong or illegal.

Suburbs began to move more toward Democrats during Mr Trump’s first campaign for president in 2016 and his presidency super-charged their leftward shift. White college-educated women especially began to move away from the Republican Party in the past decade even before the Dobbs v Jackson decision overturned the right to an abortion.

Ideally, many Republicans should be hopeful ahead of this election. President Joe Biden’s approval ratings continue to be sluggish. The Reuters/Ipsos poll showed that it hovers around the same level that Mr Trump’s approval was at in this point in his presidency, which of course led to Mr Trump losing the 2020 presidential election.

Republicans should feel confident about a victory, as a result. But if Mr Trump is the nominee, that might make it harder for Republicans to win back these key voters, flip the Senate or hold onto their small majority in the House of Representatives.

Republicans will have a hard time arguing they are the better party on cracking down on crime when they have a nominee who faces federal charges at the top of their ticket.