Dominic Raab will do May's bidding – but will seek to steer her away from more EU concessions

The new Brexit secretary has wider reach in the Conservative Party than it appears, having worked for Dominic Grieve and David Davis, both of whom he counts as friends

Dominic Raab is a natural fit to succeed David Davis as Brexit secretary, as he was Davis’s chief-of-staff before becoming an MP in 2010. That he shares Davis’s Eurosceptic, right-wing but liberal instincts would have been an attraction for May, who desperately needs to send a reassuring signal to pro-Brexit MPs in open revolt against the soft Brexit blueprint she railroaded through the cabinet at Chequers last Friday.

Raab campaigned to leave the EU but is now in the group of “pragmatic Brexiteers” headed by Michael Gove rather than the purists’ camp led by Davis and now Boris Johnson after his resignation turned the crisis caused by Davis’s earlier decision into a full-blown one for May.

When Raab was promoted to housing minister in May’s January reshuffle, many Tories were surprised that he did not land a cabinet post. Some recalled clashes between Raab when he was a justice minister and May when she was home secretary. Today she judged that, whatever their past differences, she needed him in her cabinet.

Raab was not in the housing job for long enough to make much impact. The most recent housebuilding statistics were disappointing, though he insisted the trend was in the right direction. He courted controversy by claiming that immigration had an impact on the housing market.

However, the 44-year-old Raab has wider reach in the Conservative Party than it appears. He also used to work for Dominic Grieve, unofficial leader of the band of 20 pro-European Tory MPs, and is friends with both him and Davis.

As Brexit secretary, he will have to do May’s bidding, and will want to avoid the kind of tense relationship Davis had with her. She will be in the driving seat; there is speculation his Department for Exiting the EU will be scaled down, and it could disappear after the UK formally leaves the block next March.

Raab will though want to make his mark in Brussels, where Davis had been a marginal figure since March: EU officials saw Olly Robbins, the civil servant in charge of the negotiations who works directly to May, as “the real Brexit secretary”. Raab will certainly want to form a personal relationship with Michel Barnier, the suave Frenchman who is the EU’s chief negotiator. Time is short, but their relationship could become important this autumn as the talks reach their climax.

Raab will be prepared to give and take – but only up to a point. His instinct will be to work behind the scenes to steer May away from making further concessions to the EU, which Davis made clear today was his primary aim in resigning. Although Eurosceptics regarded the Chequers settlement last week as “not a real Brexit”, they fear May will have to blur even more of her red lines to secure a deal with the EU. These could include: future budget contributions to the EU; a more direct role for the European Court of Justice in the UK; greater access for EU citizens to the UK than people in the rest of the world; and extending the transitional period beyond December 2020 because May’s proposed customs system will not be ready then.

The 60-strong European Research Group chaired by Jacob Rees-Mogg has the 48 names required to trigger a vote of confidence in May as Tory leader. Yet they currently lack the 159 – a majority of Tory MPs – needed to oust her. Johnson’s departure this afternoon might change that. Some Eurosceptics claim they could secure “between 50 and 150” names, which if true is getting perilously close for May.

Having finally made up her mind and picked a side in the Tories’ heated debate, May was right to stick to her plan in the Commons this afternoon and reject the Eurosceptics’ pressure to dilute the White Paper to be published on Thursday. Many mainstream Tory MPs will stick with May and not want to change leader in the middle of the EU negotiations.

Another headache for May is next week’s Commons votes on the Trade and Customs Bill. Originally, she faced a possible defeat by pro-EU Tories joining forces with opposition parties to vote for a customs union with the EU. But these Tories are now her new friends, and their rebellion has probably been defused. However, her Eurosceptic enemies might now mount a revolt of their own. They have been criticised for having “no alternative” to May’s plan and so might table amendments for the Canada-EU-style free trade deal that Davis still wants.

The Eurosceptics may indeed decide that their best hope is to vote down May’s deal in the Commons, in the hope that this would result in a “no deal” exit next March. Davis’s move, allied to Johnson’s, potentially increases the number of Tories who might oppose her agreement.

As I revealed on Friday, Tory ministers are already sounding out Labour MPs who might vote for a soft Brexit, even if Jeremy Corbyn looks certain to whip his MPs to vote against whatever deal May secures in the hope of forcing a general election. Unusually, Gavin Barwell, Downing Street’s chief of staff, today offered to brief Labour MPs on the Chequers deal. This has infuriated Eurosceptics, fuelling their desire to depose May.

Labour’s parliamentarians will come under enormous pressure to toe the party line, however. One Labour source said: “Just as the pro-EU Tories are told not to help Corbyn, our MPs will be ordered not to save May.”

Despite that, May might yet get her deal approved by the Commons thanks to Labour MPs counteracting a revolt by Tory Eurosceptics. The Brexiteers can make a disproportionate amount of noise. But that, and the resignations of Johnson and Davis, do not change the parliamentary arithmetic, which points to approving a soft Brexit and, if necessary, blocking a “no deal” departure.

This piece was updated following the resignation of Boris Johnson, having originally been published at 12.30. 9/718