The Democratic nomination is a three-horse race between Biden, Bernie and Warren. That's a good thing for everyone

What's important is not the first choice of most Democrat voters, but the second

It has often felt, over the past few months, like every Democrat and their dog, cat, pet parakeet and 30 to 50 feral hogs is running for president. The gargantuan size of the Democratic primary field – which now stands at 20 candidates, after some dropouts – has been bemoaned by voters and pundits alike. It’s easy to see why, as there’s been no shortage of vanity runs from politicians that most voters have never heard of, who stand little chance of winning. Many want the party to get on with finding person to take on Trump quickly, then unite behind them ahead of November 2020.

Anxiety at the prospect of a long primary race with the potential to damage and divide the Democratic Party is understandable. The divisions of the bruising 2016 race between Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders are still very much existent, with each camp still blaming the other for Clinton’s traumatic loss to Trump.

But despite the huge number of candidates, this Democratic primary is shaping up to be much healthier than the last. Democrats have a clear end goal (defeating Trump) and a clear enemy (also Trump). They have experienced life with a Republican in White House for the first time since 2007, with the chaos unleashed by Trump (and Putin) lighting a fire under the party.

The Democrat field might seem enormous right now, but it is essentially a three-horse race. A Monmouth University poll, released this week, shows senators Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren deadlocked among Democratic voters at 20 per cent each, with Joe Biden a point behind at 19 per cent. This is the first time that Biden – the overwhelming favourite – has been outpolled since 2020 polling began.

Polling in fourth place with eight per cent is Senator Kamala Harris, whose campaign continues to struggle. Last week, I wrote a de-facto obituary of the Harris campaign. Without some sort of political earthquake or scandal from the top three, Harris will struggle to break her opponents’ grip on this race. As voters converge around candidates with a realistic shot at victory, the chances of Sanders, Warren or Biden becoming the nominee naturally increase.

One person who’ll likely be pleased about Harris’s poll decline is Elizabeth Warren. In July, a poll of Democratic Party presidential candidates revealed that 38 per cent of Harris supporters identify Warren as their second favourite.

This week, a similar poll showed that a growing number of Joe Biden supporters are starting to consider Warren as an alternative choice. The Hill-HarrisX poll found that 20 per cent of Democratic voters who currently support former vice president Biden would now pick Warren as their second choice. This a 12-point increase from an identical poll conducted in May.

Perhaps surprisingly, Bernie Sanders – the Independent Vermont senator running on a “democratic socialist” platform – is still the preferred second choice of 35 per cent of Biden supporters. Exceeding Warren’s tally by 15 per cent, Sanders support among Biden supporters is up 8 per cent from May. This goes both ways: 46 per cent of Sanders supporters also pick Biden as their second choice. It might seem counterintuitive, but it’s true.

The reasons why people choose to vote for certain candidates are varied. Nearly half of Sanders supporters picking Biden, compared to just 22 per cent for Warren – a Sanders ally who is undeniably more politically aligned with the Vermont senator – is surprising. But perhaps the name recognition of Biden and Sanders, or the idea that they are best placed to take on Trump – which has so far been supported by head-to-head polls – is pulling Sanders and Biden supporters towards each other. After all, another recent poll revealed that 65 per cent of Democrat voters care more about beating Trump than any one policy.

Aside from the top three, who currently poll at a combined 60 per cent, there is still almost 40 per cent of the vote still to be won. The grip of Biden and Sanders on each other’s second spot might seem ironclad, but Warren is gaining support among Biden’s base, so everything is still to play for.

Out of the top three, the Massachusetts senator will be encouraged to see that, in addition to strong support from Harris supporters, she is also the top second choice among Beto O’Rourke and Pete Buttigeig supporters. These candidates will likely exit the race early, and Warren will hope to benefit by bringing them into her camp.

The important distinction here is that, in a three-horse race that looks set to continue for many more months, the candidate to eventually win the nomination might not be everyone’s favourite, but most people’s second favourite. The poll to watch most closely might be who voters want as their second choice, not their first preference.

To avoid the bitter divisions of 2016’s primary, a three-horse race is a blessing in disguise for Democrats. With Bernie on one side and Biden on the other, it remains to be seen whether Warren’s campaign will flourish, or whether her support will disappear to either side. Only time will tell.

Ultimately, the Democrat who will emerge victorious might not be loved by all. But they’ll be a candidate that most Democrats can live with, having had their ideas tested against multiple wings of the party in a less adversarial, polarised contest than we saw in 2016. Far from damaging the party, this primary cycle is shaping up to be exactly what Democrats need.