Could you please not repeat the question?

Miles Kington
Monday 24 February 1997 00:02 GMT
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1. Have you noticed that newspapers used to commission and print opinion poll results the whole time, but that even in advance of the coming election there don't seem to be any?

No, I hadn't.

Yes, I had.

Yes, and isn't it wonderful to be spared?

2. For instance, the Wirral South by-election is only days away but nobody seems to have deluged us with the usual poll soundings. All we have had so far is the rough findings of canvassers and a defiant shake of the white flag from "Dr" Brian Mawhinney. But no polls. Why not, do you think?

Because the polls got it so wrong at the last election that the papers don't want to burn their fingers again.

Because the polls got it right at the last election and then people changed their minds after reading the poll results and before voting, thus making it look as if the polls were wrong.

Because Tory papers are sick of Blair being so far ahead all the time and would rather not even print the polls.

Because the papers have finally tumbled to the fact that polls are not news and nobody gives a toss about them.

3. The absence of polls is very curious, because the British have always loved indulging in speculation. Politicians are always being asked how they think the vote will go. The public is always wasting its money phoning in to vote on matters they cannot possibly affect. Cricketers and football managers are always being asked to predict the result of fixtures. The Lottery is all about forecasting things, and so are football pools and astrology, and so are all those programmes on BBC which show the build- up to Five Nations rugby internationals, although that might be a bit different, because international rugby is about the only sport that the BBC has still got hold of, so they have to milk it dry until everyone is bored silly, but the question remains: Although we still love speculation, have we actually got fed up with polls themselves?

Yes.

No.

No, we haven't. It's just that we are fed up being asked the wrong questions.

4. How do you mean, being asked the wrong questions?

Well, the pollsters only ever ask questions like: If there were an election tomorrow, which party would you vote for?

Or, which of the three party leaders do you rate most highly?

Or, if John Major stepped down, who would you favour most as the next Tory leader?

5. Well, what's wrong with questions like that?

Everything.

They are the sort of questions which only politicians want to know the answers to.

They are the sort of dumb-assed questions asked by interviewers on the Today programme.

They don't reflect the kind of questions the voter is asking.

6. OK, wise guy, what kind of questions is the voter asking?

For better or worse, the average voter would like to see the following questions asked:

Why can't we have that nice Mr Major back in charge but with a Labour majority?

Why can't we have a Labour government taking over, but Kenneth Clarke continuing as Chancellor, as he is the only Tory minister who seems to know what he is doing?

And Gordon Brown doesn't?

Why hasn't Michael Howard sued Private Eye for accusing him of being a lunatic?

If Mr Major says that devolution would betray 1,000 years of history, how does he account for the fact that Scotland was independent for most of the period, and what does this tell us about Major's grasp of history?

Does it matter if Malcolm Rifkind is Jewish or not ... ?

7. Hold on, hold on. This Malcolm Rifkind business is very serious, is it not?

No, it's not.

Who cares if he is Jewish?

Except those people who are already puzzled by his strangled Scottish accent.

Except those people who miss Rabbi Hugo Gryn on Radio 4 very much and think of Malcolm Rifkind as a pretty poor Jewish replacement.

8. Hmm ... To sum up, then - do you think polls are a good or bad thing?

There you go again.

Asking excruciatingly simple-minded questions.

The answer is that, like most thing, polls can be good or bad.

It all depends on the context.

But of course you can't get a good headline out of a statement beginning: "It all depends ... "

Which may be why polls are not much in evidence these days.

Because, far from being too simple for us, they are actually too sophisticated for most voters.

If you agree, phone Yes. If you disagree, phone the No line. If you don't know what this is all about, wait till the election comes along and serve you right.

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