Finding a vaccine for coronavirus is the easy part, the real challenge will be relieving our fears

Without a 60-70 per cent uptake, those who agree to vaccination are unlikely to realise the full benefits of having it. Our leaders have a lot of convincing to do

The race is on to find an effective vaccine for Covid-19,and teams of researchers across the globe have started trials of potential candidate drugs.

With the potential to rescue us from social distancing and all other restrictions we’re all too familiar with, we might even have one of these new vaccines before the end of the year. Even if this happens, and that’s a big if, that’s not the end of the challenge – enough of us have to be persuaded to have the vaccine if it's going to offer any protection at a population level.

Estimates vary but somewhere in the region of 60-70 per cent of the population would need to agree to be immunised to ensure we have herd immunity. Previous debates about vaccines are playing out yet again in relation to the one for Covid, although there are some key differences.

According to the Vaccine Confidence Project run by the London school of hygiene and tropical medicine, roughly one in three of us could have enough misgivings about the drug to refuse taking part in this mass vaccination programme.

Some people are concerned about the speed at which these trials are taking place, suggesting that the usual rigour applied to these trials might be loosened due to the urgency of creating a vaccine. Apart from that, however, there doesn’t seem to be much room for genuine rational debate about this or any vaccine. Anyone daring to question the effectiveness or adverse effects of a vaccine is depicted as ignorant, selfish and stupid. Not exactly a great technique for winning hearts and minds.

The time frame in which these new vaccines are being developed is a legitimate concern. Any drug developed in a few months won’t provide any information about anything other than any potential short-term adverse effects; there is no way of knowing what, if any, long-term risks to health there may be.

While no researcher would willingly make a vaccine that’s harmful, it would take years of careful monitoring to establish any adverse effects of the drug on humans.

Few of us will have a truly open mind about a new vaccine; many will already have made up our minds about the vaccine before we even know what it is. But those who are unsure about the vaccine could increase and that matters to all of us.

Without that 60-70 per cent uptake, those who agree to vaccination are unlikely to realise the full benefits of having it.

Being persuaded on any issue including vaccines is not merely about knowledge and facts but those more difficult human components that are less binary: trust, levels of anxiety, and being receptive. Believing something has as much to do with faith as it is about intelligence and education. Having faith in the person or group providing information about a new vaccine will be a key factor in reaching the 60-70 per cent threshold needed for it to be effective in the population. Faith and trust in this government isn’t in rude health currently and given that our national health will rely on those hard to win qualities, it's clear this issue of confidence extends beyond tribal politics.

If we feel we have been misled by the government on other aspects of Covid-19, such as their ability (or indeed inability) to test and trace, why would we believe any statement about the efficacy and risks of a new vaccine?

Our individual perception of the risk that Covid poses to us also seems to influence our willingness to consider vaccination. Researchers tracking this found 7 per cent of us in mid-March would refuse a vaccine, but when Covid deaths rose a few weeks later, this figure dropped to 5 per cent then rose again to 9 per cent, now that fewer people are dying. Bear in mind we still don’t have a vaccine, so these reported decisions are being made in the absence of information about the drug and any risks associated with it.

In the meantime, there are two things we should do to use this period wisely and to our collective advantage: First build trust in politicians. This aspect would be helped by a larger dose of honesty and transparency on their part, which must include saying "I don’t know’" rather than deploying distraction techniques or pretending something is certain when it plainly isn’t. But equally, we all could learn to listen carefully and respectfully to other people’s concerns about vaccines, doing so is critical to all our futures.

Ian Hamilton is an associate professor of addiction at the University of York