We all want to see our families – but here’s why the ‘social bubble’ system could be a disaster waiting to happen

There are plenty of pitfalls for us all about potentially only being able to socialise with one other household

If you could merge your coronavirus lockdown with one other household, which would you choose: to see your own family or your in-laws? Perhaps your single flatmate will get to see her parents from now on, or… maybe you will now be able to embrace your live-apart boyfriend for the first time in months?

What about parents of adult children, which child’s household will they choose to merge with – the one who needs childcare or the one who lives alone?

You can imagine the arguments already. Like a real-life version of The Sims – a social experiment set for disaster – the tolerance of lockdown waning and now punctured by a drawn-out rendition of the annual “whose house shall we spend Christmas at this year?” debate on steroids.

At some time during the 5pm Covid Daily show – or should I say the government briefing, which has become the nation’s own real-time version of EastEnders – it was announced that households may be permitted to merge as soon as 1 June in England.

At the moment the rules state that people can meet with one other person from outside their household at one time for a socially distanced walk or picnic outdoors.

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Known as the household bubble or cluster system, the merging would see people allowed to expand their household group to include one other. Members of the same bubble could then visit one another in their homes rather than only being permitted to socialise outside at a two-metre distance.

There are many who would think Boris Johnson and Dominic Cummings have been living in their own elitist bubble already over the last few days, but the idea is laid out in the government’s 50-page roadmap out of lockdown, Our Plan to Rebuild. It would “allow those who are isolated some more social contact, and to reduce the most harmful effects of the current social restrictions, while continuing to limit the risk of chains of transmission”.

It would also enable some parents to begin returning to work and share the childcare burden with a second household. Something that was not possible prior to this change, or at least was not apparent to most of the population was possible until reports surfaced of said prime ministerial aide’s trip to Durham full stop.

Though as yet unconfirmed, the government is also examining if people may be permitted to gather outdoors in slightly larger groups. A report published in The Telegraph on 26 May suggested this would see up to 10 people able to barbecue, gather at a distance in gardens and, the government hopes, even possibly facilitate small weddings.

The household “bubble” system is based on New Zealand’s successful model of keeping social and family groups small while allowing people to gradually introduce more social contact.

It would undoubtedly make an enormous difference and ease the burden of loneliness and childcare for many, allowing people to gradually open up their circles after 10 weeks of isolation. Though, if you saw the photographs of England’s beaches or went for a walk in a park this past weekend, you’d be forgiven for assuming we are well past this stage already.

However, while the bubble system sounds great in theory, as the deputy chief medical officer Jenny Harries herself warned, it could in practice actually be rather complicated.

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Not only would it make lockdown much more difficult to police, leaving the responsibility for the continued reduction of transmission in the hands of an increasingly frustrated public who have cited Cummings as a reason for flouting lockdown rules, but it could give rise to a whole roster of social problems.

How do you come to a measured and reasonable agreement on who should be able to see their family? How do you explain to the family of the person who pulled the short straw why they were not chosen? Can people trust that their friends will only merge with them? Social media would suggest otherwise. And once groups do begin to expand to a maximum of 10, how will this work?

It’s enough to bring back traumatic memories of being picked last for sports teams at school. Or the tricky political logistics of deciding on who sits where – or which second cousins even get invited – to a wedding.

Those in the shielding groups have been advised that even under new socialising rules, they should be “staying at home at all times and avoiding all non-essential face-to-face contact”, with those in the moderate risk group advised also to “stay at home as much as possible” and if they do go out, to “take particular care to minimise contact with others outside [their] household”.

So, if you are immunosuppressed, pregnant or have type 1 diabetes (accounting for a quarter of Covid-19 deaths), this new system will surely only make lockdown further frustrating, being able to see friends gathering but unable to join in.

Of course, we all want to begin merging our social groups, but perhaps we all just need to take our cue from those family gatherings at Christmas (remember them?) and take on board that we are all in this together. Inclusivity and attempts at harmony will go a long way to help. And, if that fails, there’s always rock paper scissors.