The government wrote the worst-case scenario plan for this winter, but doesn't want us to believe it

A winter coronavirus spike, a once in 40 years flu outbreak, floods, social unrest triggered by mass unemployment, chronic food and medicine shortages by no-deal Brexit: troops on the street – not a chance in hell

The government’s latest “reasonable worst-case scenario” winter planning document going around Whitehall has been leaked to the press, and it’s the same old rubbish as last time.

Emergency airdrops for the Channel Islands? The rationing of drinking water? Come on. Get real, they say. It’s not going to happen. The last time this occurred, when The Sunday Times published the details of Operation Yellowhammer, Michael Gove very kindly set the record straight, explaining that his department’s own documents were just yet more media scaremongering.

And this time, the newspapers (The Sun) are being even more ridiculous. A winter coronavirus spike, a once in 40 years flu outbreak, floods, social unrest triggered by mass unemployment, chronic food and medicine shortages by no-deal Brexit: troops on the street – not a chance in hell.

You can’t criticise the government for being both underprepared and for preparing for the worst. And if you want some idea as to just how laughable this stuff is, The Independent has been leaked Whitehall’s reasonable worst-case scenario planning document for 2019-20, which includes the following:

• The entire Brexit negotiating process could be completely overshadowed by a once in a hundred-year coronavirus pandemic which takes hold in the UK on the very day it formally leaves the European Union.

• The prime minister (Boris Johnson) fails to attend any of the emergency meetings over the new virus, and instead holds a nine-day private summit at Chequers with his pregnant girlfriend to sort out his personal life, instructing civil servants not to bother him.
• Despite clear and obvious warnings from comparable countries all around the globe, Johnson could decide not to impose the kind of lockdowns seen elsewhere, directly leading to the highest per capita death toll of any country in the world.
• During the crucial early stages of the pandemic, the prime minister appears on live television and brags about going into a hospital and shaking hands with coronavirus patients. Later, his aides will anonymously clarify that he didn’t actually say the thing he said.
• Thousands of undiagnosed coronavirus patients could be evacuated from hospitals to free up space and sent into care homes, triggering tens of thousands of entirely unavoidable deaths among both residents and the staff who have to care for them without proper equipment. The health secretary is likely to atone for this mistake by issuing a very small green badge with the word “Care” written on it, which may entitle its wearer to various Bogof deals in Boots, when it eventually reopens.
• It is feared the prime minister’s most senior adviser could entirely undermine the lockdown effort by driving his family 250 miles across the country and then tell bare-faced lies about it on television, including claiming his subsequent day trip to a nearby beauty spot, on his wedding anniversary, was taken only to test his eyesight.    
• The same adviser may also claim he has been warning about coronavirus pandemics for years, but actually he has just used his first day back in the office to retroactively edit his own blog to make it look like he has been warning about coronavirus pandemics for years, when he quite obviously has not.
• The UK economy could contract by 20 per cent in a single quarter, the largest contraction in UK history, and of any developed country in the world.
• National debt could top £2 trillion.
• The government may refuse to seek an extension to the Brexit transition period, preferring to see the chaos as an opportunity to conceal the worst of the no-deal Brexit damage.
• Worst-case scenario planning documents could be leaked to the press, but no one will take any notice because they’re all too far-fetched.