This war has yielded some surprising winners

Mr Hague has been turned into a statesman, and may yet enjoy the most incredible of all comebacks

It seems fantastic that just four weeks ago we were contemplating the possibility that both Tony Blair and Iain Duncan Smith were under threat of losing their jobs. Riding high, above both main party leaders, was Charles Kennedy, whose Liberal Democrats stood united and apparently in tune with the bulk of public opinion against the war.

Now, it is Mr Kennedy whose confidence appears to have suffered most. His performances in the Commons have been undermined by a universal hoot of derision from the bovver boys of both main parties (although the Tories seem to have been called off by their Chief Whip, David Maclean, for fear that they were inducing too much public sympathy for the embattled Mr Kennedy).

It is also true that Mr Kennedy has probably suffered because of the enforced absence from the Commons, due to illness, of his foreign affairs spokesman, Menzies Campbell, an unfailingly steady influence. His formidable grasp of foreign affairs was certainly very beneficial to Mr Kennedy in the aftermath of 11 September and during the war in Afghanistan. It was probably a mistake for Mr Kennedy to appear to change horses from his decision to be against military action only up to the point at which the conflict began.

Having said all that, however, the Liberal Democrats may well have the last laugh in two weeks' time. For while the "Baghdad bounce" appears to have given Mr Blair an opinion-poll boost, this may not necessarily convert into Labour votes in the local elections on 1 May.

There is, after all, a solid core of voters who have remained anti-war, and the Liberal Democrats may well benefit from their clear pitch for that constituency. Mr Kennedy's party stand at 22 per cent in the latest poll, and have traditionally outperfomed their poll rating in local elections. This leaves them with every prospect of making gains next month. Mr Kennedy will be well satisfied with that.

The Tories face an interesting prospect. Mr Duncan Smith has undoubtedly had a good war. He stuck to his decision, from conviction, to afford the Prime Minister his full support and, as Mr Blair acknowledged, refused to take any opportunity (and there were opportunities) to exploit early difficulties in the military campaign. A former army officer himself, this is a subject where IDS plays to his strengths. His recent Commons performances have improved dramatically and, by being associated with the victory, he may have marginalised any remaining leadership ambitions from the anti-war Kenneth Clarke. In any case, talk of the Clarke/Portillo dream ticket now appears to be dead.

So the war has also allowed IDS to emerge unscathed from the trauma that followed the cack-handed dismissal six weeks ago of Michael Portillo's henchmen from Central Office. I frankly thought that this, along with Mr Portillo's devastating outburst, would prove terminal for IDS. I think I may have been premature. Having spoken to a number of associations on the rubber-chicken circuit these past few weeks, I have detected a pronounced rallying of support for IDS from the party faithful and a desire for vengeance against anyone seen to be rocking the boat.

The Tories are, nevertheless, in the doldrums at the polls. The possibility of council seat gains in May is entirely dependent on the level of turnout. Low turnouts could give the Tories enough gains for IDS to say he is making progress. Of course, sadly he is not. But MPs might be unwilling to oust him now that the alternatives of Clarke and Portillo are out of the running. That would leave only David Davis as a viable replacement – although many have been sighing with approval at William Hague, who has been transformed into a something of a statesman during recent weeks. Mr Hague, at 42, has matured since his baseball cap days, and some have speculated that he may yet follow John Howard, the Prime Minister of Australia, by making the most incredible of comebacks.

But Mr Blair is undoubtedly the winner, and is free to re-shape his government later this summer. He still needs Gordon Brown – but not as much as Mr Brown may now need him.

The big question is how vindictive the Prime Minister will be towards those on his own side who failed to back him. Clare Short now cuts a sad figure, and may be dispensable, while Ann Clwyd looks more ministerial by the day. Poor Robin Cook, originally the hero of the hour, has suffered for backing down from his original stance in his Sunday Mirror article four weeks ago. But Mr Blair will gain eventually by showing magnanimity to at least one high-profile rebel – if only to re-unite the 130 rebel MPs who are feeling decidedly sick at his triumph. The dignified ministerial resignee John Denham would be an excellent candidate for rehabilitation.

mrbrown@pimlico.freeserve.co.uk