The key question: should the Tories panic or not?

We need to ensure that reinvigorated Tory activists are not thrown back into depression

Iain Duncan Smith is entitled to drink a toast to the hundreds of extra Conservative councillors who were elected on Thursday. In headline terms, the results were better than we expected and do not justify Mr Crispin Blunt's call to his parliamentary colleagues to spoil the celebrations.

There were also encouraging signs of a recovery in Scotland, with three constituency wins in the devolved Parliament. But this is more an occasion for Pomagne rather than for vintage champagne. The celebration glasses, stored in the bowels of Conservative Central Office, have not been used for many years and they are clearly somewhat chipped and lethal. Mr Blunt is hoping that his leader will cut himself as he savours these substantial council seat gains.

While Mr Blunt's treachery, before he knew any of the election outcomes, looked like a particularly nasty, pre-emptive attempt to rain on Mr Duncan Smith's parade, ironically it may have saved IDS from a motion of no confidence. It has, however, reminded us of the reality check that needs to be applied to these results, but it would be churlish to deny that the headline gains for the Tories exceeded most predictions by party spin doctors and commentators.

We had been conditioned to expect only modest gains but these results, on the face of it, are better than modest, although they fall far short of being "fantastic" – the word IDS used. On the other hand the party leader must be allowed his moment of hyperbole and triumph. The Conservative Party is at least still alive and is even breathing without a ventilator. It is unlikely, however, on the basis of these results to make a full recovery by the next general election.

Mr Blunt's public disloyalty was uncalled for but it has made us focus on the scale of the task that still lies ahead. The percentage share of the vote is nothing like the springboard provided by previous mid-term gains for opposition parties, and we should remember that even Michael Foot did better in local elections in the early 1980s than the Tories did on Thursday. There is every reason for the Tories to panic – and there is also every reason for them not to panic. So they might as well choose the "don't panic" option – albeit without the Corporal Jones overtones. There does not appear to be a bandwagon gathering to join Mr Blunt, and party workers will be putting Tory MPs under pressure to knuckle down and show some semblance of unity and loyalty during the next two years.

The case for panic is based on the assumption that the Tories are going to lose the next election and that some sitting MPs may lose their seats. But the more the Tories spend time airing such sentiments, the more this feeds the voracious appetite of the media, thereby ensuring that such prophesies become self-fulfilling.

Certainly there is evidence from some Liberal Democrat gains that a number of Tory-held constituencies are vulnerable. The gains for the Lib Dems in Windsor and Maidenhead and Bournemouth underline this. But the picture is very muddy. In Taunton and Guildford, for example, there were good Tory victories. The Lib Dems made some progress but it can hardly be described as conclusive or sensational. And, in the war of perception and spin, the Tories have undoubtedly beaten them.

So would yet another self-inflicted leadership election really solve anything? There is no obvious successor waiting in the wings and every potential alternative is fraught with disadvantages. It is not sufficient for Mr Blunt to claim that anyone would be better than Mr Duncan Smith. Unless there is a single and universally accepted alternative, they might as well knuckle down under the current leadership. The bloodletting and paralysis could last for two months and such manoeuvrings would cause untold resentment from party workers who have toiled so hard in recent weeks. There is a need to ensure that the little platoons of newly elected councillors and reinvigorated activists are not thrown back into depression.

Of course, IDS cannot afford any more self-inflicted gaffes that can cause a crisis out of nothing. One hopes he has learnt lessons after the debacle of last summer's reshuffle, in which David Davis was sacked from the party chairmanship. And we certainly do not need any more "unite or die" moments or provocations against (or from) Michael Portillo. There is also the ticking time bomb set off by the appointment of the new chief executive, Barry Legg, whose past membership of Westminster City Council may be coming back to haunt him. Mr Legg has been kept out of sight in recent weeks because of this and IDS may be wise to reconsider this appointment.

The Tories are still more than a decade away from power. Patience is not something for which they are renowned. It is conceivable that the next Tory prime minister has not even been elected to Parliament. But the day that every Tory MP bites his or her lip and returns to the disciplines of yesteryear will be the day they advance their chances of eventual victory.

Confidence breeds confidence and IDS cut an impressive and upbeat figure during interviews yesterday. It may be "bullshit" to talk of winning the next election but he has at least found forward gear in spite of Mr Blunt's attempt to throw everything into reverse. In the game of commentators' expectations, IDS has won.

mrbrown@pimlico.freeserve.co.uk