Consultants. Firefighters. The French. The Tories. Spot the odd one out

The Government is in more difficulty on more fronts than at any time since it came to power. The consultants and firefighters are flexing their muscles, with many other workers threatening to join the fray. Its plans for cash-strapped universities and run-down secondary schools are confused at best, the source of considerable internal tension. A few hours of storms last weekend plunged the rotting railways into chaos. Mr Blair's aspirations to be at the heart of Europe are threatened by a revival of the old Franco-German alliance. And what happens? The Conservatives have a leadership crisis.

The Tories' latest panic is different only in the sense that it is laced with a greater sense of despair. Last weekend one Shadow cabinet member was contemplating resigning from the front bench, and that was several days before the reports of discontent from other Conservative MPs. They despair at the obvious inadequacies of their leader. They despair at the lack of progress in terms of modernising their party. And they despair that there seems to be no way out of the nightmare except, possibly, another leadership contest, another throw of the dice.

During the years the Conservatives have been in crisis I have held the view that their position was not as bad as Labour's in the 1980s. Memories are short, and it is easy to forget that for several years Labour appeared to be doomed, a formal schism narrowing its appeal even further, its support confined to a dwindling working-class base in urban areas. I recall Roy Jenkins writing a review of a biography of Jim Callaghan. He referred to Callaghan as the "last Labour prime minister", the implication being that he was the "final" Labour prime minister, as well as the most recent. Few demurred with the analysis at the time, including some of those toiling away in Labour's shadow cabinet.

Even so, there comes a point when my firmly held view can be firmly held no longer. As one senior Conservative put it to me this weekend: "We are at a similar stage to Labour under Michael Foot, but with a less obvious route to recovery." This assessment is even grimmer than it sounds in that the analysis is being made after more than five years of opposition. Mr Foot had stood down after less than three years of traumatic leadership, clearing the way for a stuttering recovery under Neil Kinnock. For 10 years now, the Conservatives have been miles behind in the polls (a very different pattern from Labour in the 1980s: Labour was often ahead in the polls, it just lost elections). In Scotland and Wales the Conservatives are battling in elections for third or fourth place, without a hope of coming second. Something much bigger is going on than the inability of Iain Duncan Smith to capture the limelight.

The obsession with leadership contests – Ken Clarke describes standing for the leadership as "one of my hobbies" – is a symptom of a much wider malaise. The nature of the contests is also a sign of a party that is in the throes of a terminal nervous breakdown. In 1995 John Major stood down as Conservative leader, but stayed on as prime minister to fight a contest, even though no one had challenged him. In 1997 we had the bizarre spectacle of the Europhile Ken Clarke and John Redwood, who wanted to leave the EU, standing on a joint ticket. In all the recent leadership contests the party has managed to reject the candidates with the broadest appeal.

How is it that a party once capable of winning general elections with its eyes closed has acquired such a death wish? Part of their problem is a crisis of representation. England, though not Scotland and Wales, is in some ways a more conservative country than some of its European counterparts. But after 18 years of rule, the Conservative titans left the political stage wounded or exhausted, normally both. Two landslide defeats – greatly exacerbated by the electoral system – wiped out some of the others who possessed a modicum of political talent. Those who have survived do not understand the arts of opposition. To understand New Labour, it is always necessary to remember that its architects spent 18 years in opposition. To appreciate the demise of the Conservatives one must recall that they spent 18 years in power.

Tomorrow's vote in the Commons on proposals that would permit gay couples to adopt illustrates the Tories' naive insularity. An opposition party cannot be judged by the implementation of policies as it has no power to implement them. All it can do is send out signals to the wider electorate. Mr Duncan Smith has imposed a three-line whip on his MPs, instructing them to oppose the Government's liberal approach. This is hardly a forward-looking signal. Part of the Shadow cabinet discussion on this issue was focused on parochial parliamentary detail: "We have imposed a three-line whip before. We have to be consistent." Those who have survived the two landslides cannot understand that in the outside world few notice what whipping system they had used on previous Commons votes. While the world turns away the Shadow cabinet gets worked up by standing orders and whips.

The challenges currently facing the Government serve only to reinforce the Tory dilemma. The Conservatives despair that they are still being blamed for the various crises whirling around the public services. Yet it is, inescapably, the case that the origins of the crises can be traced back to the 1980s and 1990s. The Government is at fault for addressing them too slowly, but at least it is trying, belatedly, to act. Paradoxically, the tardiness of Mr Blair makes it harder for the Conservatives. After more than five years out of power they are still being asked to rage against the consequences of their own policies.

The cash crisis in the universities follows decades of under-investment. It has to be addressed. One way or another the Government is finally getting around to dealing with it. Mr Blair will openly agonise about the difficulties involved, but at least he is agonising. Similarly, the chaotic railway privatisation that the Government should have addressed in 1997 is still more or less in place. The consultants are predictably resisting reform, as they always do, but at least it is in the context of additional resources finally being made available to the NHS. On Europe, Blair has his problems, but he is engaged with the EU rather than seeking to be on the sidelines. Although the Government faces a series of hurdles, none of which it will leap with great confidence, disillusioned voters will not turn to a party associated with bringing those problems about in the first place. In conservative England the Conservative Party is being swallowed alive by its past.