Mo Mowlam: Blair could split his party for a generation

There is a very real danger that he could do to Labour what Thatcher did to the Tories

The one thing clear from the election is that our first-past-the-post system is producing unfair results that do not reflect the will of the people. The ratio of the number of seats for every 1 per cent of votes cast of 10.1 for Labour, 6.1 for the Conservatives and 2.8 for the Liberal Democrats is disgraceful. But, short of a hung parliament where the junior partner is the Liberal Democrats, we have very little chance of seeing the present system changed.

The one thing clear from the election is that our first-past-the-post system is producing unfair results that do not reflect the will of the people. The ratio of the number of seats for every 1 per cent of votes cast of 10.1 for Labour, 6.1 for the Conservatives and 2.8 for the Liberal Democrats is disgraceful. But, short of a hung parliament where the junior partner is the Liberal Democrats, we have very little chance of seeing the present system changed.

We therefore have to look at the new dynamics in the context of where we are now, not where we would like to be.

The election has caused a great change in the way the parties see themselves. For the Tories, it has created a surge in confidence. This is not reflected in the result - they are still behind the lamentable performance of Michael Foot's Labour Party in 1983, but that does not matter. Michael Howard did the miraculous job of making them believe that they are a professional party again. The despair of the William Hague and Iain Duncan Smith days has gone. Even Michael Howard's premature departure should not destroy his achievement.

What struck me very strongly over the weekend was the maturity and good sense of various Tory frontbenchers talking about the future. In particular I was impressed by Alan Duncan, David Willetts and Damian Green. All three were looking at political realities and asking fundamental questions about what Conservatism means to people. David Willetts, in particular, made the point that in the Eighties, under Margaret Thatcher, the Tory party led people to realise the importance of free-market economics. Today the Conservatives follow with ageing voters and party members.

If the Tories can build on this realism they have the opportunity of building a majority by the next election. In simple terms they have to move on to the middle ground occupied by Labour.

The Liberal Democrats have been criticised for making a good show against Labour but failing to decapitate the Tories. They have been seen as left of Labour, which some people have seen as a fault. I do not agree. It is quite clear from the percentage of the vote taken by progressive parties (59 per cent, excluding the Scottish and Welsh nationalists) that there is a considerable left-wing vote in Britain. The Liberals Democrats are not yet near to winning an election but if they could increase their vote to over 30 per cent, they would be poised to make that leap.

So what about the sick man of British politics, the Labour Party. Despite winning with a very respectable majority, the demise of Tony Blair has been the hot topic. When will he go? This is a big story but it is not of fundamental importance - although the longer he stays, the greater the corrosion caused to the party as people jostle for position in the succession. It is highly likely the next leader will be Gordon Brown, although nothing is ever certain in politics. This perception is going to cause havoc in a party that has spent the last 10 years dividing itself into Blairites and Brownites.

A new leader is going to find it very difficult to unite the party for the next election. There will be too many losers: whether they are bitter Blairites ripped from their posts, or bitter Brownites who feel they have not been adequately rewarded for their loyalty. The infighting in the Labour Party will be reminiscent of the Tories in recent years.

The boost in the polls that many in Labour hope for with the election of Gordon to the top job may also be short-lived. It will also quickly become apparent that Gordon is not very different politically from Tony.

He will disappoint old Labour for not being left-wing enough and he will scare the middle ground by looking too left-wing. Add to this that his management style is even more arrogant and exclusive than Tony and we have a dangerous cocktail for Labour. So, if the Tories hold their nerve and reinvent themselves, and the Liberal Democrats accept the position of being to the left of the Labour Party, we could see the beginnings of a big squeeze on Labour. If the Tories can get to 40 per cent of the vote by 2009 and the Liberal Democrats 30 per cent, it leaves Labour looking at 25-30 per cent. So all those bright people around Blair, get your thinking caps on.

There is a very real danger that Tony Blair could do to Labour what Margaret Thatcher did to the Tories, split the party for a generation. Labour could be left in a political limbo as its left wing is eaten up by the Liberal Democrats and the Tories march onto the centre ground.

Gordon Brown has been preparing for the premiership for a long time, but his chalice may be as poisoned as that of John Major in the early 1990s.

The writer served in the Labour government from 1997-2001