Michael Brown: I see more foreign travel in Mr Blair's future

The international stage presents a welcome opportunity to escape from the domestic agenda

After that, the Prime Minister will, according to Blairites, aggressively confront a full in-tray of domestic problems. Except that one wonders just how excited the Prime Minister is at the prospect of facing this pile of unfinished domestic political tedium. As Mr Blair prepares for the new political calendar, the normal imperatives governing a re-elected prime minister at this stage in the electoral cycle are absent. Usually a government freshly returned to office is fizzing with a great new idea. But, terrorism legislation apart, I defy any Labour MP - still less a voter - to name the big idea and the flagship bill that will define the Blair third term.

I suspect, notwithstanding the recent spin, that Mr Blair's appetite for the continuing challenges of domestic politics is declining. Yes, he will doubtless remind ministers of the commitments in the Labour manifesto. But I cannot help feeling that the office trays in Downing Street over the coming months will be more likely marked "pending", "long-grass"and "foreign travel".

The incentive for an incumbent government to tackle unresolved issues is usually driven by the desire to win a subsequent election. But, like George Bush, Mr Blair has no more elections to fight. Indeed, this is the first Prime Minister in living memory for whom the electoral constraints no longer apply. In theory this should enable Mr Blair to initiate whatever he likes, daring even to take risks with his personal popularity. But I suspect that his desire to avoid unpopularity and his obsession with his "legacy"will actually freeze his zeal for pressing on with the so called "reform"agenda for the public services, pensions and welfare reform.

In America, final-term presidents rarely make a domestic impact, and George Bush looks like going the same way as most of his predecessors. His personal ratings have nose-dived and, although the Republicans control both houses of Congress, those congressmen and senators seeking re-election next year will thwart the President's domestic agenda for fear of too close an association with Mr Bush. Also, the President is doomed to be bogged down by Iraq for the remainder of his term. And the more attention Mr Bush is forced to give Iraq, the more Mr Blair also needs to be involved - whether he likes it (and I think he does) or not.

For Mr Blair, the international stage presents a welcome opportunity to escape from the domestic agenda. Promises before the election to cut down on international travel look pretty thin now that he has Iraq, the G8 and Europe to occupy him. Even if he wanted to engage on domestic matters, he would not be able to resist the political attractions of international travel. Is it really likely that he has the energy or inclination to drive, from the centre, further reforms in the public services when so many Labour MPs will make his life difficult?

The structure of this government requires a constant Downing Street focus on a particular subject. Unless departments such as Education, Health and Work and Pensions are overseen with prime ministerial zeal, a torpor descends. Sure, white papers (another is coming on education), consultation documents and other "initiatives"will spew from the departmental machines. But in spite of the plethora of legislation confronting the Commons, little will make a significant difference to our daily lives - except, of course, that relating to terrorism. Most of the bills on health and education amount to tinkering rather than reform.

Ruth Kelly at Education and Patricia Hewitt at Health may be ultra-Blairites, but they work as mere administrative automatons unless driven by Blair personally. And the weekend shriek from Blairite sources that the Prime Minister is about to re-engage on these domestic issues appears to me a smokescreen to hide the fact that he has more international fish to fry.

Since the general election, the talk of Mr Blair's possible date for departure to the international lecture circuit has been stilled, largely thanks to the imperatives caused by the terrorists bombs in London. These gave Mr Blair a renewed sense of purpose. There were fizzy new initiatives - many of which in the cold light of day are turning out to be unworkable or unenforceable. Hazel Blears was ordered to rush around the country during the summer. But, now the initial panic has subsided, Charles Clarke has an opportunity to consider some of the drawbacks to the headline-grabbing statements emanating from Downing Street in the immediate aftermath of the attacks.

Meanwhile the state of the economy looks more precarious by the week. The burgeoning deficit may be politically sustainable for a few months more, but some nasty medicine will need to be applied in next year's Budget. Action should have been taken earlier this year, but the demands of polling day ensured that Gordon Brown would put off the day of tax increases until next year. And evidence is mounting that slowing growth will lead to a remorseless increase in unemployment, falling house prices and reduced consumer spending in 2006.

That will certainly be a year when a long-serving Prime Minister will want to make sure he is as far away from responsibility for the management of the economy as possible. Mr Blair will be quite content if the Chancellor has to bear the personal blame for an economic slowdown at the very moment he is counting the days before his own move to Number 10.

In the past, it has been Gordon Brown who has been able to craftily slip off the political radar when, apart from the economy, everything else was going wrong for the Government. Mr Blair, by contrast, is not the type to slip off the radar, but foreign summitry, saving the world, Europe and Iraq will give him a platform far more attractive than the humdrum demands of the TUC, Labour MPs and Parliament. It might even absolve him of the charge of being a lame-duck Prime Minister and get him to the halfway mark of this Parliament in 2007. In the meantime, since there is no effective opposition, he will get away with as much foreign travel as he likes.

mrbrown@talktalk.net