John Rentoul: The romantic symbolism of the superstate is defeated. Blair can now fight for his vision
Signing up for all that waffle about pluralism would have kept alive the superstate dream
All is for the best in the best of all possible worlds. Now we can say it. The French No vote was the best possible outcome, not just for Tony Blair and the British pro-European cause but for the cause of European unity as a whole. Conversely, it is a grievous setback, not just for those who want to break up the European Union but for British anti-Europeans in particular.
All is for the best in the best of all possible worlds. Now we can say it. The French No vote was the best possible outcome, not just for Tony Blair and the British pro-European cause but for the cause of European unity as a whole. Conversely, it is a grievous setback, not just for those who want to break up the European Union but for British anti-Europeans in particular.
Nothing would have pleased Britain's Eurosceptics more than for the voters here to have rejected the European constitution next summer, after all the 24 other EU members had endorsed it. That really would have caused a crisis, in the EU and in Britain's relations with it. Which is why, after an elaborate diplomatic dance of, "No, no, after you, I insist", the only basis on which Blair was willing to fight a referendum was if Britain went last. Only then could a Yes vote in Britain be presented as a vote for the status quo and a No vote be presented as a leap in the dark. Even so, it would have been exceedingly difficult for the Government to win, and the likelihood would have been that Britain would be cast as the wrecker of Europe.
No wonder that the Conservative Party, with all the tactical subtlety that has reaped such rich rewards at the ballot box over the past decade, has called for the British referendum to go ahead. That is a position I confidently predict will be quietly dropped soon enough, whoever is leader. Europe's leaders cannot quite bring themselves to say it yet - if nothing else, there is the requirement of democratic etiquette while the Dutch prepare to go the polls - but it is completely obvious that the constitution is no more.
It has been nailed to the perch not by the usual suspect, the foot-dragging Anglo-Saxons who have never quite got over their sulk at having missed out at the start. The constitution is now pushing up the daisies thanks to the French electorate rebuffing its leaders who, in alliance with Germany, have driven the Union's closer integration since its foundation. Ideal. Pro-Europeans and antis alike have agonised for years about the "democratic deficit" in the EU. Well, it is nothing like as large as it used to be. Imperfect, partial and confused as democracy often is, the people have spoken.
French voters have given all sorts of reasons for voting No, many of them contradictory, but there can be little doubt that in the longer perspective of history, it will be seen as a vote that said: "So far and no farther." I would not characterise the mood of European peoples as being satisfied with the state of the Union, but the French referendum suggests that the balance between the powers of the nation state and the centre is regarded as being about right. The expansion from 15 to 25 members last year was a huge change not just in the size but in the nature of the Union, which many in France did not like because it diminished their influence. They did not want to take the risk that the constitution would set the seal on that diminution.
It is on this point that British pro-Europeans can now speak honestly. It is true, as Jack Straw, the Foreign Secretary, insists, that tough British negotiating in alliance with many of the new Europeans ensured the constitution would not formally have centralised power in Brussels beyond what was already enshrined in the existing treaties that govern the EU. All that was left of the dying gasp of Franco-German political integrationism was the symbol of something called "A Constitution for Europe", complete with flag, anthem and motto ("united in diversity", since you ask). But symbols are important and, no matter how much it was possible to defend the substance of the constitution as streamlining the dispatch of EU business, signing up for all that ghastly waffle about pluralism and non-discrimination would have kept the dream of the superstate alive.
I did not regard such a fading chimera as a threat to life, the universe and civilisation as we know it. If it had come to a British referendum, we pro-Europeans would have had to vote for the constitution. But how much better it is now, now that the romantic symbolism of the superstate has been defeated and the debate can restart on terms that are wholly advantageous to the pragmatic British tradition.
That is why I do not accept that the Prime Minister faces a situation almost as difficult as if the French had voted Yes. What do you think he would rather do? Fight a referendum in this country which he would probably lose, or hold the EU presidency as it decides what to do next? Having said when he first came to power that he did not think a European constitution was necessary, he has had to fight a long defensive campaign while the old Franco-German flame burnt itself out.
At last he can say what he thinks again, and finds Britain placed much closer to the centre of European gravity than ever. It has turned out that a European constitution was not necessary. It may be a little cumbersome to use rules devised for six nations for a Union of 25, but many sensible reforms can be made that would not need a new treaty. What the EU needs to do is focus on maximising the benefits of the single market, which has been the British obsession all along.
For some time, the argument has been moving in Britain's favour towards labour market flexibility and against counterproductive social protection. Franco-German attempts to "protect" people's welfare by loading costs on employers and by protection against imports has resulted in high unemployment at home and poverty abroad.
There are dangers ahead for the pro-European cause in this country. Britain in Europe, the business-backed organisation set up to campaign for a Yes vote in a referendum is to be wound up. But if people want to fight for a British vision of a flexible Europe and the eventual adoption of the euro, they will have to campaign energetically against the poison of the Daily Mail and The Sun. The anti-Europeans will be in disarray for a while but they will regroup and find new ways to push Britain towards the status of Norway or Switzerland .
Call me Dr Pangloss if you like, but the prospects for a wider, democratic and flexible Europe with Britain at its economic and political heart are better now than they have been for half a century.
The writer is chief political commentator for 'The Independent on Sunday'
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