John Curtice: Gordon Brown may need some sweeteners to stop the sour taste of Labour from spreading

Gordon Brown may not quite need to come to the rescue of his party's apparently faltering campaign tomorrow. But the serried ranks of Labour MPs behind him will certainly be hoping for some good cheer to calm their nerves after our latest NOP poll reveals the party's lead over the Conservatives is no more than five points.

To provide that cheer, Mr Brown may be wise to pinch some ideas from the Conservative benches. The Tories have seemingly caught the public mood with their proposal to retain Labour's increases in health and education spending while cutting back on spending elsewhere in order to make room for tax cuts.

No less than 41 per cent say they would like to see some cuts in public spending to make room for tax cuts while just 35 per cent back keeping spending as it is and not having any tax cuts. Labour should perhaps be particularly concerned that skilled working class C2 voters appear to be especially keen on tax cuts; this, after all, is the group many believe switched to the Tories in the 1980s in the belief Mrs Thatcher's regime was more likely to fulfil their aspirations to better themselves.

Tomorrow's Budget will provide Labour with the best chance it is likely to have of drawing the Tory fire on tax. A few tax cuts of its own could be the perfect recipe for the Chancellor to serve. At the same time, he will doubtless try to persuade us the Tories cannot be trusted to sustain the improvements in health and education that Labour claims to have delivered.

Something that might appeal to women would not come amiss tomorrow either. Our poll supports recent speculation that Labour is finding it more difficult to win female votes. Support for the party among women is four points lower than among men, though it is the Liberal Democrats rather than the Tories who are benefiting.

Yet our poll does not simply give Labour pause for thought. It poses some challenges for the Tories, too. Tax cuts that do not hurt health or education may have some public sympathy but that does not automatically translate into votes. For every voter in favour of tax cuts who backs the Conservatives, there are two who say they still favour Labour or the Liberal Democrats. If Gordon Brown does come up with some tax cuts of his own, the Tories' task in winning votes on the issue can only become harder.

Meanwhile, one of the Tory flagship policies on health, that the NHS should pay half the cost of private treatment, does not appear to be very popular at all. Just 16 per cent like the idea - no less than 68 per cent believe all health spending should be concentrated on ensuring the NHS remains free at the point of delivery. Even among Tory voters, opponents of the party's policy outnumber supporters by two to one.

Moreover, for all the talk of the Tories having stolen the intellectual agenda, capturing the popular imagination still seems to be beyond them. At 34 per cent, the support is just a point higher than four years ago.

But at least the Tories' "yellow peril", that is a further Liberal Democrat advance, now seems a little less of a threat. The poll indicates Charles Kennedy's party remains at below 20 per cent after having been hitherto consistently above it for over two years. Labour supporters appear more hesitant in their support than Conservatives; they are certainly more likely to have to be asked twice for whom they will vote before being willing to declare it.

Mr Howard may still be a long way away from Downing Street but his cause does not simply look hopeless.

John Curtice is professor of politics at Strathclyde University