Can the Iraqi majority defeat the terrorist minority?

There are a lot of people in the Middle East who do not want the new government to succeed

Words shape events. A leader who uses language effectively has formidable leverage on politics, even in Iraq. I am not sure how widely The Independent on Sunday is read between the Tigris and the Euphrates, but in an article he wrote in our sister paper yesterday, Iyad Allawi, who is about to become the Prime Minister of Iraq, struck exactly the right note.

He talked about the need to revive the Iraqi economy. Given potential oil riches, that ought to be the least of his problems, but he also stressed the importance of the rule of law, both domestically in Iraq and as a reassurance for foreign investors. In all successful democracies, the establishment of the rule of law predated universal suffrage. If Dr Allawi has his way, that will also be true of Iraq. He has no intention of importing some democratic model derived from Washington or Westminster and imposing it on the Iraqi people. He believes that the democracy must grow organically, out of culture, history and tradition.

In all this, he was subtly distancing himself from the Americans, signalling to the world and to the US, that from Thursday onwards, everything will be different. Iraq will have a sovereign government run by Iraqis and determined to secure early legitimacy at the ballot box. It was not quite the Gettysburg Address but Dr Allawi was talking about government of the people, by the people, for the people - of Iraq.

He was also in favour of an amnesty for almost all Iraqis who had committed criminal acts under Saddam and for the majority of those who have taken up arms against the coalition forces. This is wise. Amnesty is closely related to amnesia which is precisely what Iraq needs in order to focus on the future rather than wallowing in the past.

In view of the difficulties of devising a mode of justice, it might indeed be better if the new government were to hang Saddam and a handful of his most senior torturers while pardoning everyone else - including, even, the ineffable Tariq Aziz. It is worth remembering that the Bourbons employed Talleyrand after 1815. While it would be absurd to compare the two men's diplomatic skills, it is not clear that there is an enormous moral distinction.

Apropos of morality, the Americans made a foolish mistake when they disbanded the Baath Party and Saddam's army. That may have been good morals but it was lousy politics. You cannot run a country the size of Iraq with a pack of boy scouts. In the old days, when it seemed likely that Saddam would be in power indefinitely, a lot of Iraqis joined the Baath Party solely in order to make a living. A lot of Iraqi soldiers would have professed undying loyalty to Saddam for the same reason, and to help stay alive. This may not entitle them to a Nobel Prize for moral courage, but it does not render them unemployable. By throwing them out of work, the Americans helped the terrorists' recruiting drive.

It is not surprising that the terrorist campaign is intensifying as 1 July approaches. There are a lot of people in the Middle East who do not want the new government to succeed. This is not only true of al-Qa'ida. The region is full of intellectuals and journalists in the Edward Said tradition, for whom the entire recent history of the Middle East is one of victimisation, and who are so full of self-pity and anger that they cannot bear the thought of good news, especially if the Americans are involved. Their ill will towards George Bush is far greater than their goodwill towards the Iraqi people. They are all praying for Dr Allawi to fail, and many of them would be delighted if he were assassinated. His government will need a lot of luck, not least in his own survival.

Yesterday at least, he sounded as if he felt capable of confronting the challenges. He is not without allies. Most observers agree that a substantial majority of Iraqis would prefer a normal life with a chance to earn more money and to live free from the shadow of fear. The question is whether this majority could be mobilised in order to help the incoming government to defeat the terrorists.

In that task, Dr Allawi will have the assistance of two exceptionally able Americans. David Petraeus, a three-star general, is to take charge of re-organising the Iraqi army and police. A fighting soldier and a thinking one, the general has won golden opinions, which have not been liberally bestowed on other US commanders in Iraq.

On the diplomatic side, there is John Negroponte. Trained by Henry Kissinger, Mr Negroponte proved an apt pupil and won a summa cum laude in realpolitik. He will understand Iraq as it is, not as some of his political masters in Washington would wish it to be. If Messrs Negroponte and Petraeus had been in charge from the start, everything would be much better.

No one can predict what will happen after Wednesday. There is a chance that an Iraqi government will change the entire political atmosphere, and quite quickly. There is also a chance that a car bomb could change the entire political atmosphere, even more quickly. Dr Allawi seems to have the words. Only time will prove whether he also has the luck.