Alastair Campbell's return to politics signals a campaign of dirty tricks and cynicism

Tony Blair will be taking photo-calls with nurses, while his functionaries are pouring shot into the Tory party

When Alastair Campbell left Number 10, he said that once the spokesman had become the story, it was time to go. Now, he is back and within hours of his return, who was the story? He was. It already seems as if he had never been away, and the principal themes of Tony Blair's election campaign are all classic Campbell. They are dirty tricks and cynicism.

So it was last week, in the story about Britain's withdrawal from the Exchange Rate Mechanism (ERM) in September 1992. There had been requests for documents to be made available under the Freedom of Information Act, but the impression was somehow given - although, of course, Labour denies responsibility - that John Major and Norman Lamont were trying to block their release.

It is easy to see why the Blairites should have been eager to stir up this issue. They were keen to remind the voters about an event which did a great deal to undermine the Tories' reputation for economic competence.

They were also hoping to reopen Tory divisions. The ERM dégringolade divided Tory supporters. The ensuing rows helped to make the party ungovernable, and thus ensure a large Labour majority. Someone was, no doubt, hoping that the Tories had not yet drained the cup of bitterness and bile.

For once, Labour miscalculated. It would seem that the ERM has now receded into history. The Tory dog will no longer return to that particular vomit. Moreover, the lies that Labour briefers told about John Major and Norman Lamont instantly backfired.

Since 1997, Mr Major has distanced himself from party warfare. His infrequent interventions in politics only occur when he feels deeply about an issue. Their rarity - and the obvious sincerity - give his statements weight. When he talks about Mr Blair's chicanery, it is not the normal Today programme exchange of insults. It has moral force. John Major now commands an elder statesman's platform. The Tories must be hoping that Labour will continue to provoke him.

The ERM was lie one. Lie two of the Labour campaign is only just visible on the horizon, but it will be the most enormous fib of them all. The Tories are proposing to cut £35bn worth of government waste. They would spend £4bn of that in tax cuts, £8bn on reducing Gordon Brown's budget deficit, and £23bn on improvements to the public services.

You would be entitled to refuse to accept the Tories' waste claim if you believe it absurd to suggest that the Government wastes seven and a half pence every time it spends a pound. Most voters would not find that inherently incredible. It does seem likely that in an organisation as large as the British Government, which has increased its spending as rapidly as Gordon Brown has, there will be a lot of waste.

Yet Labour are about to try to brush aside the waste question, and claim that the Tories would cut spending on the public services by £35bn. That is Labour's big lie, and Goebbels would be proud of Tony Blair. Even if Labour's posters could largely be acquitted of anti-Semitism, the party is borrowing its propaganda techniques from anti-Semitism's spinmeister.

Lies are close kin to cynicism. New Labour thinks that it is safe to lie because the voters will not notice. Over the past seven and three quarter years, the Blairites have formed the lowest possible opinion of the voters' intelligence. The Government has dumbed down politics, in the confident expectation that it was dealing with a dumbed-down public. Ministers have often told lies on the assumption that as long as the rebuttal comes in small print several hours later, the lie will stick. That is how this government will continue, to the end.

The taproot of cynicism and lies is hatred. Whatever the intellectual incoherence of New Labour, it must be remembered that most of its leading figures used to believe. They were once socialists. They began the 1980s assuming that the Thatcher government was an aberration and that normal socialist service would shortly be resumed. Then Thatcher turned into Thatcherism, and the terms of British political trade altered, irrevocably.

That is why a lot of New Labourites still hate Margaret Thatcher. Charles Clarke, Harriet Harman, Patricia Hewitt; they may all seem contented members of a post-ideological government, but they once had their own ideology, and they will never forgive the Tories for trampling on it. The same is true of Alastair Campbell. This explains the use of Margaret Thatcher in Labour websites. Many months ago, when the Tories were still in a strategic flounder, the Blairites had identified a crucial task for the next general election. The outcome would depend on their ability to activate their core vote in an era of political apathy. They believe that in the North of England and in the Midlands, Margaret Thatcher's name is still hated among Labour supporters.

When Tony Blair was trying to reach a Daily Mail audience, he often gave the impression that he regarded himself as Lady Thatcher's political heir. There will be none of that over the next few weeks. In the traditional Tory/Labour marginals, Labour will be doing everything possible to use John Prescott to appeal to Labour supporters. Mr Prescott can be accused of many things, but not of being Mrs Thatcher's political heir.

Labour have other tactics which they will employ to reach those whom they regard as locked-up Labour voters. That explains the repeated use of Michael Howard's name in Labour election material aimed at Muslim voters. Michael Howard, Michael Howard: if the name is repeated often enough, Labour assumes that Muslims will get the subliminal message. The leader of the Tory party is a J.. - is Michael Howard.

This election campaign is already one of the dirtiest ever, and it has hardly started. That gives the Tories a problem. Do they retaliate in kind, or do they try to take the high moral ground?

If the latter, they have a problem. Alastair Campbell intends to insulate Tony Blair from the flying ordure, by sending him to visit old people's homes, nurses' homes, nursery schools, et al. Mr Campbell also intends to ensure that the Labour leader should be subjected to the minimum possible questioning during the election campaign.

Tony Blair will take the high road of photo-calls with pretty nurses, et al. Back at base, his functionaries will be pouring shot and shell into the Tory party: telling any lie which they think might survive until beyond the Ten O'clock news.

It is a well worked-out plan of campaign, and it is not going to be easy for Michael Howard to project a message above Labour's carefully-orchestrated background noise. But intelligent voters might keep one thing in mind whenever they see the Prime Minister on television over the next few weeks. Behind his sanctimony, just out of vision, Alastair Campbell and 50 Campbellettes will be indulging in their favourite sport of dirty tricks and cynicism.