Andrew Grice: How public unease has led to a growing sense of insecurity in New Labour

When the Cabinet met last Friday for a session without civil servants, Tony Blair and his ministers were warned that the biggest danger to the Government was "a general sense of insecurity" among voters.

The gloomy message in Labour's private polling presented to the three-hour meeting left little time to gloat at the turmoil engulfing the Tories.

Instead, ministers left Downing Street feeling rather insecure themselves.

"Our position is nowhere near as solid as it looks," one member of the Cabinet told me yesterday. The most striking poll finding was a rising sense of insecurity across several fronts, ranging from litter, vandalism, drunken yobs and muggings, up to acts of terrorism. There were also growing signs of economic insecurity – over jobs, growth and pensions – which could jeopardise Labour's hard-won reputation for being able to deliver economic stability.

The picture was hardly one of a nation at ease with itself. "The worry is that people will blame these things on the Government of the day. We cannot afford to be complacent," one minister said.

The polling explains Tony Blair's determination to make "antisocial behaviour" one of the main planks in the legislative programme for the year ahead, announced in the Queen's Speech yesterday.

There was no desperate need for the much-trumpeted Antisocial Behaviour Bill. Until a few weeks ago, its measures were going to be enacted under existing laws or included in the Criminal Justice Bill. But ministers judged that having a self-standing measure would put the issue in neon lighting. The hope is that the public thinks the Government is "doing something" and that the fears which emerged in the polling will be allayed.

Of course, bringing in a Bill does not mean anything will change on the ground. The Home Office normally grabs a huge chunk of parliamentary time, often to put right the mistakes of previous legislation – such as David Blunkett's rewrite of Jack Straw's asylum policy – or to solve a new problem. I look forward to the Anti-social Behaviour (Correction of Previous Government Cock-ups) Bill in a future session.

Mr Blair knows full well that crime cannot be solved by hype. Indeed, there is a danger that talking up crime will encourage public expectations that cannot be fulfilled. In fact, the Prime Minister is convinced that the real answer to the yobbish behaviour is not a new law but better co-operation between the different agencies responsible for the problem.

That is the lesson he has drawn from his "street crime" initiative to cut robberies.

The Bills announced yesterday will provide no shortage of controversy. The flagship Criminal Justice Bill may well be gutted in the House of Lords by an alliance of judges, lawyers, Tories and Liberal Democrats.

In the Commons, many Labour MPs will be uneasy over foundation hospitals. There will be a huge Labour rebellion if Mr Blair presses ahead with top-up fees for universities. He may have to sugar the pill by including measures to help students from low income families.

However, the Queen's Speech gives only a partial picture of the political year ahead. For example, the firemen's strike, which began last night, could be only the first of a rash of public-sector pay battles that threaten to blow a big hole in the Government's plans to ensure that its extra billions improve frontline services.

International affairs will cast a shadow over the domestic agenda. Whatever happens in Iraq, the spectre of terrorism is bound to loom large.

Then there is the small matter of the euro. Although there was no mention yesterday of a Bill paving the way for a referendum, the "no" campaign should not be popping the champagne corks yet. A few months ago, there was a plan to announce a Bill in the Queen's Speech to kickstart a referendum campaign. But this would have been seen as pre-judging Gordon Brown's five tests and would have unsettled the markets, since it would have been seen as a firm declaration of intent to join.

Mr Blair gives the impression of a man who wants to "go for it" by calling a referendum next year. But different smoke signals are coming from the Treasury.

We will not know the answer until Mr Blair and Mr Brown have their most important "chat" since 1994, when Mr Blair emerged as the modernisers' candidate for the Labour leadership.

Apart from foundation hospitals, there is little in the programme to take forward the new drive on public-service reforms promised by Mr Blair in his Labour conference speech.

Whether people notice any real improvement in schools, hospitals and transport will ultimately be more important to the Government's prospects than much of the legislation announced yesterday.