Daily catch-up: I think I’d better stop trying to predict the Labour leadership election
This morning’s YouGov poll doesn’t necessarily suggest Jeremy Corbyn will win, but who can say?
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Your support makes all the difference.I could note that, after preferences are transferred, Jeremy Corbyn would be ahead by “just” 53 per cent to 47 per cent for Andy Burnham in today’s YouGov poll for The Times.
I could note that there are seven weeks of the leadership campaign to go, and that once it becomes obvious that most Labour MPs will refuse to accept Corbyn as leader people might vote differently. A free vote against the system is one thing; an informed vote for civil war is another.
I could note that YouGov’s final poll of party members in 2010 put Ed Miliband four points ahead when he ended up nine points behind (a deficit made up in the trade union section), and that a similar bias to the left this time would mean Burnham (or Cooper) would win by seven points.
But as I no longer have any understanding of what is going on among Labour Party members and supporters, it might be better if I said that I have no idea what is going to happen, and that, whatever it is, it is a disaster for Labour.
I have heard of party members who, when asked if they think that Corbyn can beat the Conservatives in 2020, say that they are voting for him because they “want a strong left presence”.
I had assumed that such attitudes were those of a minority that is exceptionally vocal online but that would be outvoted by normal Labour supporters who want the party to be in government. Now it is apparent that, although they are a minority, they are a large one.
The Times poll (pay wall) figures are:
Leadership
Jeremy Corbyn 43% (53% after transfers)
Andy Burnham 26% (47% after transfers)
Yvette Cooper 20%
Liz Kendall 11%
Full members (n=823) split 50-50% between Corbyn and Burnham on final round. Registered supporters (paying £3) and affiliated supporters (trade unionists) (n=182) split 69-31%.
Deputy leadership (only slightly less depressing):
Tom Watson 41% (50% after transfers)
Stella Creasy 21% (26% after transfers)
Caroline Flint 17% (23% after transfers)
Ben Bradshaw 11%
Angela Eagle 10%
Poll of 1,054 party members and registered and affiliated supporters carried out online from Friday to yesterday. More on the methods from Peter Kellner.
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