Canada is gone — and behind the camera-ready smile, Justin Trudeau knows it

If not for the weakened Liberals’ needing New Democrat support, Jagmeet Singh would be expected to resign for his party's results. The knives may yet be out for him, and that could threaten the vital support he’s pledged to the Liberals

As soon as polls closed for Monday's Canadian election, it became clear something was going terribly wrong for the ruling Liberals.

In that vast country, results from eastern districts on the Atlantic coast come in first, and the party of Prime Minister Justin Trudeau was leading its main rival, the Conservatives. But beneath that veneer was trouble, for that area had voted completely Liberal the last election. Trudeau’s party should have been utterly dominating, instead of merely leading.

And now that the results are in, even though the outlook may seem better — Trudeau, after all, remains prime minister — it’s actually a lot worse. And that is a statement to be made not just for the Liberals, but also Canada’s reputation for progressiveness.

Trudeau’s Liberal party ended the night at 157 seats out of 338 electoral districts, shy of the 170 majority needed to form the government. But the leader of the fourth-place New Democratic Party (NDP) — traditionally to the left of the left-leaning Liberals — has already said he will back a Trudeau government.

That means Trudeau keeps his job, but with an even more progressive kingmaker holding his leash. NDP leader Jagmeet Singh, a 40-year-old turban-wearing ethnic minority known for speaking in colloquialisms and Canadian slang — more “brand Trudeau” than Trudeau himself — will hold strong power. In a Westminster-style political system like Canada’s, that’s called a minority government.

With Singh’s support, there is an image of sameness, the continuation of the Canadian reputation the world has known through Trudeau: a sort of bastion of moral leadership, built on the prime minister’s idealistic vision for doing politics differently, empowering the traditionally repressed and greater participation on the world stage, distilled into a famous “Canada is back” victory speech in 2015.

But on Monday — insofar as in the context of Trudeau’s 2015 speech — Canada was gone.

There will likely be no greater international participation, no dogged pursuit of the United Nations Security Council seat Trudeau had vowed. Running a minority government is a tough job, for you have to devote a lot of energy to politicking and remaining in power.

“It’s very hard to engage internationally when your focus is on being in the House of Commons to make sure you win the next vote,” the former politician Allan Rock told the Canadian Broadcasting Corp today. “I was in New York as the ambassador to the UN when there was a minority government in Ottawa. Can’t tell you the number of times ministers had to cancel visits or speeches.”

All that is not to say that minority governments are always disasters, whether in terms of staying in power or getting things done. In the 1960s, a Liberal minority government — again backed by the NDP — pushed through universal healthcare. Trudeau’s Conservative predecessor Stephen Harper held minority governments together through sheer force of will for five years.

But recall Harper’s second minority government faced such instability he had to suspend parliament to avoid being voted out, a matter memorably described by Maclean’s magazine as “a crisis that shook the nation.”

Power in Canada’s political system is like the Iron Throne from Game of Thrones, built from blades that are still sharp. No one ever sits comfortably in the big chair. Often dubbed the “first among equals,” the prime minister is just one of the 338 legislators who happens to lead the most powerful party.

Any Liberal can challenge Trudeau for his post. Threats and signs of instability come from both inside and out. And that gets worse with minority governments, when weakness is smelled everywhere and sensed quickly.

Then there are the heads of the other parties. Among insiders, there is already talk of replacing the current Conservative leader, Andrew Scheer, who led the party to great gains, winning the popular vote but falling short of attaining anything tangible.

Despite playing kingmaker, the New Democrats, led by Singh, had actually fallen hard — down 15 seats — another indication that the power Trudeau-esque progressive politics holds is waning. If not for the weakened Liberals’ needing New Democrat support, Singh would be expected to resign for his party's results. The knives may yet be out for him, and that could threaten the vital support he’s pledged to the Liberals.

All of that rides on an undercurrent of a shift toward more bare-knuckle pragmatism and cynicism in Canadian politics. A far-right splinter faction of the Conservatives was soundly rejected on Monday, but the past election saw many attacks based on lies and an almost Trumpian disregard for facts.

A minority government is not technically a coalition, which is an official partnership between parties. But that term gives way to a good joke: “A coalition is like coal,” a comedian for Canada’s public broadcaster said on Tuesday “It’s something dirty you use only when you have no other choice.”

On Monday night, as the results trickled in from the east, under the pale sweater and for-the-camera-smile Trudeau wore, there was no doubt a sense, a knowledge rumbling in a way that cannot be ignored, that nothing will be the same as before.