Business leaders are supporting Brexit over fear of a looming recession – not the merits of Theresa May’s deal

The short term certainty businesses are after courtesy of May’s deal makes sense, but it will be bought at a very high price

“Inappropriate and desperate,” is how a small business owner described the attempt by Theresa May’s government to secure his backing for its dismal Brexit deal on having contacted me about it.

It was a perfect summation, as I discovered by clicking on the link he sent me.

It took me to a government campaign website entitled “the Brexit deal explained”, featuring a series of glossy YouTube videos, each timed at a minute.

I know that because each had a countdown feature in the top right corner, which was handy because while watching them I was frequently left thinking, only 30 seconds left, thank goodness for that. Now we’re down to 20, excellent. Wait, wait, and now it’s at 10, huzzah!

While watching the countdown, I listened to a friendly female voice speaking over the sort of uplifting yet reassuring muzak ad agencies are fond of. The series of lumpen slogans she voiced also appeared on the screen. Each video wrapped up with “now is the time to come together to build a bright future”.

It rather suggested to me that the government thinks business owners are stupid.

A child could see through the self serving mendacity that was presented. A napalm maker trying to tell you their product isn’t harmful could do a better job.

But I dutifully watched the lot of them. Sometimes I hate my job. You don’t need to because I found the crucial line strategically positioned before the glossy tripe.

“So this is the choice: backing the deal in the national interest so we can build a brighter future – or going back to square one by rejecting it,” it said. Translation? This is the best you’re going to get. Back it or we’ll skewer you and rest of the country along with you.

That might explain the supportive quotes from business leaders. I saw one from the London Stock Exchange, and one from Young’s Pubs, one from Richard Walker, the managing director of Iceland Foods, and one from Jürgen Maier, the chief executive of Siemens UK. Kate Nichols from UK Hospitality and Andy Palmer from Aston Martin wrapped up proceedings.

Translation (2): Your business heroes back this. You should too. Now get writing to your local MP.

Many business leaders have said they back the deal, but that’s only a half truth.

They have done so only queasily. They know it’s significantly worse than what we have now. They know it ties the UK to EU rules without a say in them, and without the benefits of membership of the single market. They know that’s just the start of the problems with it.

But they’re after Mays’ beloved stability (something absent from Britain over the past two years) at a time when the economy is starting to show signs of real strain.

The latest Purchasing Managers’ Index survey of the country’s dominant services sector that was released on Wednesday underlined that. The numbers were awful. The global boom, that has helped prop Britain up, is also looking shakier than it was. Something nasty could well be on the way.

The Investment Association released figures on Thursday showing that retail investors pulled money out of stock market linked investments for the 18th straight month in October. That part of the British people with the capacity to save aren’t buying what their government is selling.

The other driver for businessmen and women is that while the deal on offer isn’t up to much, it’s still a hell of a lot better than “no deal”.

Despite what the Tory Brexiteer press would have you believe, the majority of the business community is well aware that the Bank of England’s governor Mark Carney was right when he warned that the mother of all recessions could follow that.

You will hear people saying that the fears expressed by the likes of Carney have been overdone. It wouldn’t be that bad. It’s just hysteria.

This is born of complacency.

Things haven’t been easy in Britain since the financial crisis and the government’s austerity policy that followed in its wake has exacted a brutal toll on the less fortunate.

But the majority have more or less managed. We have not endured mass unemployment (to the contrary), there has not been a rash of home repossessions.

People who actually know what they’re talking about, business leaders who have looked over the cliff edge and been left scared at what they’ve seen, aren’t so sanguine. They can’t afford to be.

Yet the short term certainty they are after courtesy of May’s deal will be bought at a very high price. The pros the government’s campaign website cites are vastly outweighed by cons.

The most cynical part of the strategy it embodies is it’s presentation of a binary choice: May’s deal or no deal.

The prime minister knows that’s no choice at all.

The third option is to give people a vote on whether they prefer it to membership of the EU.

A referendum would result in additional short term uncertainty, which businesses and the economy would hate.

But perhaps the British people need to feel the impact of that, at least those in the “it’ll be alright brigade”.

There’s nothing like a downturn to deal with complacency. People might say they’re prepared to be poorer if it means they can somehow (sigh) “take back control”.

I rather think that would change if getting poorer were to go beyond an intellectual exercise.

There are some people who seem to have forgotten that line from Clinton campaign: “It’s the economy, stupid.” For those not among Britain’s disturbingly high number of closet racists, it is, even if they pretend otherwise.