Everyone says they know what the public think about Brexit – here’s the polling data that tells you who’s right

From enthusiasm for a second referendum to the chances Remain would win, the evidence on the public mood is clearer than a lot of people seem to think

The loudest voices on all sides of the Brexit debate have two things in common: they all seem convinced that they know what the public thinks, and they all believe that their supporters are in the majority. Their arguments are generally premised on myths, which they tend to fall back on where evidence would do much better. So, based on the most recent polling, here are four of those myths – busted.

Myth one: “Voters are so fed up with the whole process that they just want to get Brexit done.”

The slogan “Get Brexit Done” dominated the set at last week’s Conservative Party conference. But however fed up voters feel, most think that the right outcome – their preferred form of Brexit, or staying in the European Union after all – matters more than a quick resolution.

Recent Opinium surveys asked voters whether they agreed with the statement, “I don’t care how or on what terms Britain leaves the EU as long as we leave as soon as possible.” Just one in three said they did.

Myth two: “Voters haven’t changed their minds about Brexit since the 2016 referendum.”

It’s true that more than eight out of 10 voters say they would vote the same way in a fresh referendum as they did last time. But among the minority, more Leave than Remain voters are having second thoughts.

Figures in individual polls vary slightly, but an average of recent surveys shows a steady 53-47 per cent preference for Remain. This represents a five-point swing to Remain since 2016. Few general elections produce bigger swings than this.

Shifts away from Leave are greatest among working class voters under 50, NHS nurses and mothers of young children – voters attracted three years ago by hopes of higher-paid jobs and better-funded public services, but who now fear the impact of Brexit on both.

YouGov surveys show that while Conservatives who voted Leave in 2016 are still solidly behind Brexit, more than one in four Labour-supporting Leave voters now either back Remain or don’t know how they would vote.

Myth three: “If voters were persuaded in a new referendum to vote the same way as last time, Leave would win once again.”

This the assumption underlying the unofficial slogan, “tell them again”. Its truth seems obvious – but in fact, it’s not the case.

Two and a half million teenagers have reached voting age since 2016. Although turnout in this age group tends to be low, those that would vote are overwhelmingly in favour of wanting Britain to stay in the EU.

Over the same period, two million Britons have died. Older voters divided two-to-one in favour of Brexit in 2016.

Taking these two demographic factors together, and allowing for turnout differences, a referendum today would result in 600-700,000 more Remain voters and 800-900,000 fewer Leave voters – even if not a single person changed their mind. As the Leave majority three years ago was just under 1.3 million, this means that a referendum today would produce a Remain majority on demographic factors alone.

Myth four: “Voters don’t want another referendum.”

Brenda from Bristol’s reaction to the start of the 2017 general election – “you’re joking, not another one” – is widely thought to reflect majority views on a fresh referendum. It doesn’t.

One way or another, the final decision about Brexit must be taken by either MPs or the wider electorate. The latest YouGov survey finds that, by almost two-to-one, voters say that if Britain is to leave the EU without a deal, the decision should be taken by a referendum than by parliament. If a deal is agreed with Brussels, the margin widens to more than two-to-one.