The strange rise of the DUP is heading for its dramatic finale

Why is a party that insists on different laws on abortion and same-sex marriage so inflexible when it comes to complete parity over animal hygiene regulations and customs checks?

Boris Johnson has decided that he will have to shake off the chains of dependence on Arlene Foster’s DUP (Getty)

After a referendum involving 33.5 million people, three and a half years of negotiations and a dramatic last-minute agreement, the fate of Brexit may now lie in the hands of 10 Northern Irish MPs elected by a total of little more than 215,000 voters between them.

The Democratic Unionist Party’s announcement that it will not support Boris Johnson’s deal in parliament may have killed off any hopes he had of fulfilling his promise to take the UK out of the European Union on 31 October.

And it was a graphic demonstration of how the unique circumstances of the UK’s political landscape has elevated a group which previously had little more than regional clout into the “little party that did”.

The inconclusive result of the 2017 general election put Arlene Foster’s party into pole position to exert maximum influence as the only viable partner for a Conservative Party which could not maintain a majority in the Commons on its own.

And the DUP took full advantage of the situation, extracting around £1bn from central government for investment in Northern Ireland as the price of a “confidence and supply” deal which would keep Theresa May in power, ensure she could pass a budget and – theoretically – smooth the UK’s departure from the EU.

In reality, the DUP showed little compunction in opposing May’s Brexit deal, standing firm on its red line that Northern Ireland should not be treated differently from the remainder of the United Kingdom, and that any question of a “backstop” that kept the province within EU structures was unacceptable.

Their views were highly influential on a small group of Brexit hardliners on the Tory backbenches, who said they would not back any deal which the DUP could not stomach.

But to many other Conservatives – including the former prime minister herself – the DUP’s stance was deeply frustrating. Some MPs asked why a party which insisted on different laws from the mainland on issues like abortion and same-sex marriage should be so inflexible when it came to complete parity over animal hygiene regulations and customs checks.

Once Johnson took over in Downing Street, it seemed the party’s grip on the process tightened further, with a mooted “Stormont lock” being seen as effectively a DUP veto enshrined in international treaty.

But the deal agreed in Brussels suggests that Johnson has decided that he will have to shake off the chains of dependence on the DUP, which no longer holds the balance of power since he lost his working majority with the exclusion and defection of more than 20 Tory MPs.

The removal of the unionist veto, the establishment of a customs border in the Irish Sea and the acceptance of EU VAT arrangements for Northern Ireland are all elements which it is difficult to see the party ever swallowing. The DUP clearly see the agreement as a betrayal. Whether Johnson can implement his deal without their support will be revealed in the dramatic days to come.

Yours,

Andrew Woodcock

Political editor