Sorry Remainers, Corbyn will never oppose Brexit. He still thinks he can avoid the Europe question

In a future referendum, Corbyn will likely refuse to support either side, casting himself as an honest broker who would implement the decision of the people. The danger is that he again falls between two stools

“People before privilege” will be Labour’s theme at its annual conference starting this weekend, with Jeremy Corbyn portrayed as on the side of the people and Boris Johnson the representative of the privileged few.

“Trust the people” will be another slogan on Labour lips, as Corbyn tries to unite his party around a policy on Brexit that he hopes will also unite the country. The Labour leader will argue that the politicians have failed to resolve the issue, and so the people must decide. At the looming general election, he wants to offer a Final Say referendum, with a choice between Remain and a soft Brexit deal he would negotiate with the EU.

Remainers hoping the Liberal Democrats’ pledge to scrap Brexit will push Labour into becoming an unambiguously Remain party are likely to be disappointed. It is a line Corbyn still refuses to cross, even though close allies like Diane Abbott and John McDonnell have come out for Remain. The Labour leader will mobilise the trade unions to try to head off demands, by grassroots members, to back Remain at Labour’s Brighton conference. The unions and members each have 50 per cent of the votes, so if the unions vote en bloc, Corbyn might see off the rebellion against his stance.

Labour sources tell me he intends to emulate Harold Wilson, the Labour prime minister who called the 1975 referendum at which the UK decided to remain in the European Community on slightly revised terms two years after joining. Corbyn has been reading up on Wilson and is attracted by the largely above the fray stance he adopted during the referendum.

As the cabinet minister Barbara Castle noted in her diary, Wilson said: “I intend to play it low key throughout. The decision is purely a marginal one. I have always said so. I have never been a fanatic for Europe. I believe the judgement is a finely balanced one.” It’s not hard to imagine Corbyn using those words.

Wilson did recommend staying in, and raised his game in the latter stages of the campaign. In contrast, Corbyn might refuse to support either side, casting himself as an honest broker who would implement the decision of the people.

He is also attracted by Wilson’s decision to suspend cabinet collective responsibility for an “agreement to disagree” so ministers could campaign for In or Out. The idea was pushed by Tony Benn, Corbyn’s mentor, who angered Wilson by stretching it to its limits as he campaigned for Leave.

Like Wilson, Corbyn heads a party deeply divided on Europe. His approach will keep onside Labour backbenchers in Leave areas and his ally Len McCluskey, the Unite leader, who has brokered a deal among the unions. But it will not go far enough for those, led by his deputy Tom Watson, who want Labour to go all-out for Remain.

There are some potential flaws in Corbyn’s strategy. Inevitably, remaining neutral at an election and in a referendum would be seen as an abdication of leadership and more fence-sitting on the most critical question facing the country. The prospect of a Labour government negotiating a customs union and single market access with the EU, and then allowing its ministers and MPs to campaign against its own deal, also stretches credulity.

Crucially, why would the EU have any incentive to give Corbyn an improved deal when it would want the referendum to back Remain? Perhaps this is why McDonnell hinted that Labour’s deal might be similar to Theresa May’s – which, of course, Labour opposed.

Corbyn has attacked the Lib Dem policy of revoking Article 50. His allies hope Labour might benefit from holding the middle ground on Brexit, while presenting the Tories and Lib Dems on the extremes. (“I’m at my best in a messy, middle-of-the-road muddle,” Wilson joked to his cabinet. Perhaps Corbyn secretly thinks the same.)

He genuinely wants to unite the country, and can argue that the “winner takes all” positions of Johnson and Jo Swinson will make that harder. But the danger for Corbyn is that he again falls between two stools. He has already tried appealing to both Remainers and Leavers, and has alienated many voters in both camps. At the European Parliament elections in May, Labour came third behind the Brexit Party and Lib Dems with just 14 per cent of the vote.

Yes, a general election would be different. But Johnson might succeed where May failed in 2017 by making it a Brexit election. Corbyn will not find it easy to recreate the magic of his brilliant 2017 campaign. Austerity will be a less potent weapon now that Boris is splashing the cash. Such fears will be discussed behind the scenes in Brighton, as some delegates wonder whether another portion of Brexit fudge from Corbyn will prove to be his last hurrah.