Brexit may just have saved Europe – it is only a shame that Britain had to sacrifice itself to do it

An extraordinary unity of purpose has been a chance for the EU to move on from the global financial crisis and the 2015 migration crisis

Europe has played it smart for once. Theresa May, and the hardline Brexiteers who have haunted her negotiations, will not be able to blame the EU for the strange political drama this week.

May’s punishing defeat on Tuesday was the result of incoherency among British politicians and incompatible red lines. Brussels offered up goodwill in the form of what it deemed a legally binding joint instrument assuring that the Northern Ireland backstop would end by 2020, but the UK’s destiny is being staged at home, and the actors are perfectly capable of turning the show into a turkey all by themselves.

The votes in parliament this week prove that it is not “Brussels” or “Europe” that is dictating the UK’s fate. And so a dishonest referendum campaign has ended up with a frantic vote tonight to try to avoid a no-deal Brexit on 29 March. The EU’s next walk-on part will follow Thursday’s vote that could send the prime minister to Europe to ask for an encore of sorts.

The debate will soon turn to the terms under which Europe will grant an Article 50 extension? There are several considerations.

First, the EU agenda is strategically set around European elections in May. Rising populism and the prospects for those parties in the European parliament are the immediate preoccupation. Brexit, for a while at least, will not be centre stage.

And on a related point, how will any extension handle the thorny issue of the UK’s MEPs? Can a member state remain a member with no representation? That would require new institutional mechanisms that complicate the work of the EU and hamper its efforts to secure legitimacy in European public opinion.

But perhaps the most telling factor here is the extraordinary consistency and unity of the EU position. This is probably the best barometer of Europe’s next move on granting an extension and for how long. It has strengthened Michel Barnier’s hand to the point where he can say today with confidence: “Why would we extend these discussions? The discussion on Article 50, that is done and dusted.”

Since the 2016 referendum, the EU has never missed a beat, some minor dissent from the periphery notwithstanding. This has been perhaps the one bright spot in the calamity of Brexit, and a chance for the EU to move on from the tension caused by the global financial crisis and the 2015 migration crisis.

Behind the leadership of the chief negotiator, Barnier, the EU has proved that it is not improvising politics. Since the UK triggered Article 50, the EU and its member states have shown a degree of exceptional coherence in protecting the integrity of the single market, peace and stability in Northern Ireland as well as rights for its citizens.

The curious point in all this, of course, is that whatever the outcome of Brexit and whatever future Britain decides for itself, the political and economic health of the vast trading bloc to its south is intimately tied to the prospects for the UK.

There had been genuine fears, after all, that Europe might fracture under the combined pressure of Brexit, populism and the malign intent of Vladimir Putin. Britain should be happy that its futile adventure has at least helped to heal the EU’s wounds and soften any post-Brexit impact.

In many European capitals, there was a stated sadness about the result of the vote on Tuesday; about the absence of a resolution. While the UK plays for timeouts and extra time, Europe is already playing the next game. European agencies have left London, London’s rival cities are chipping away at its pre-eminence in the financial sector. Customs officers in Paris have prepared for an intensification of controls in case of a no deal as seen during the “strike of zeal” at Gare du Nord last week.

Europeans are preparing for an exit of the UK, whatever form or timing it takes, while the UK wallows in its divisions, between Remainers and Leavers, the young and old.

France’s president Emmanuel Macron has called on European citizens to drive a new “renaissance” while France and Germany have made joint commitments to make Europe a shield against the tumults of the world.

The EU has drawn lessons from Brexit and is moving ahead, prioritising the renewal of its democracy and the protection of its values. Although the barriers to reform the EU are many, Brexit could serve the drive a rehabilitated European social pact, one that takes citizens’ roles seriously, and is eager to protect the values and rights that Brexit has helped to emphasise.

Brexit highlights how European integration has forged a sense of community, identity and freedom that remains remarkably powerful and cannot be taken hostage by national elites. This form of active European citizenry is what Britons are about to lose, and it has helped to harden the European consciousness of it, even in the face of continued and inevitable political challenges. That, oddly enough, will be to Britain’s advantage whichever route it chooses.

Dr Sarah Wolff is director of the centre for European research at Queen Mary University of London