Brexit has finally broken the British political system

With both main parties riven with division and the rise of the threat of violence, disillusionment is spreading fast

The British political system has existed, in a relatively similar form, for hundreds of years. Periodically, an issue will arise which causes a shock to the system, reform follows and then life returns to normal. Even the parliamentary buildings are a throwback to an earlier era, failing to have even enough seats for all 650 MPs now elected to the chamber. It is a parliamentary system which prides itself on its ability to be bomb-proof, immune to the temporary ebb and flows of popularism, providing strong and stable majority governments for generations.

No longer. The old certainties feel far less permanent in the wake of Brexit. The spectacle of the House of Commons has become a regular fixture on our television sets, with the commons becoming the scene of passionate speeches and rousing argument. As the physical structure of the Houses of Parliament are repaired and saved from the ravages of old age, how can the political system it houses be saved? Has Brexit exposed cracks in the system, which signal its demise?

The last week has demonstrated that the norms of the British political system have disappeared. The two party system has ensured, for a couple of centuries, that party unity is retained and that governments can force their legislation through and deliver their policies, regardless of the opposition within the House, and sometimes outside of it. Collective cabinet responsibility has guaranteed that potentially devastating differences of opinion are kept behind closed doors, allowing governments to operate with a unified message.

But due to Brexit these staples of the system have collapsed, with parties splintered, individuals within cabinet openly refusing to obey three-line whips, and the government being largely powerless to act. Confusion and parliamentary amendments abound with even the most committed observer unable to find a clear path through the mayhem towards a solution.

In the immediate future, the House of Commons is focused on finding some consensus on what to do next. Undoubtedly, Theresa May will try and use this as an opportunity to give her Withdrawal Bill a third chance, and with the threat of no Brexit at all becoming more of a realistic possibility, she might even drag the legislation across the line.

Whether she will get that chance largely lies with the Commons speaker, John Bercow; he may refuse to allow identical legislation to be reintroduced again, depending on his interpretation of the rules. While numerous amendments have been introduced by members on both sides of the House, covering all options from a no deal to a second referendum, it is still so hard to see which of these solutions, if any, will gather majority support.

Some members of the ERG have suggested that a change of party leader would be beneficial, while Labour is maintaining its call for a general election. But because of party and parliamentary rules, both are out of the grasp of party members.

After a failed vote of no confidence earlier in 2019, the prime minister has a year where she cannot be challenged again, strengthening her hold on Downing Street. How that would work in practice, were the Cabinet to revolt against her, is unknown, but the party cannot officially challenge her in the near future. Thanks to the Fixed term Parliament Act, Theresa May cannot call a general election – however much she may wish to – without the authority of MPs. While many may claim in public to want a public ballot immediately, the chaos caused by Brexit is a strong deterrent for many members to actually not follow through on that threat.

The only certainly today – and the only settled consensus within the House of Commons – is that an extension of Article 50 is essential to avoid no deal. The result of tonight's vote was, in that sense, inevitable.

Yet the length of that extension is still a subject for debate, as is the proper purpose behind such an extension. Is it to allow time for a general election? For a second referendum? For a new deal, or perhaps the old deal? It is too early to tell, but too late in the Brexit process for the British political system to return to its previous form.

With both parties riven with division, the first past the post system looks increasingly unfit for purpose, and the rise of the threatening spectre of violence and division in the nation, many can now count themselves as disillusioned with the British political system.

That is a dangerous situation for any government to tolerate without change.