Boris Johnson is heading for victory, but Rory Stewart emerges with credit from the first Tory leadership ballot

Matt Hancock, the health secretary, must be disappointed with his 20 votes, in sixth place, and only one vote ahead of the arriviste Stewart

The main story of the first ballot of Conservative MPs is that the tropical storm known as Boris Johnson is closer to land than we thought. His will be one of the two names which go to the party members for the final decision – unless a large number of MPs switch away from him in Tuesday’s second ballot.

Johnson picked up 29 new votes, nearly half of the 72 MPs who hadn’t declared publicly who they are supporting. In the battle for the second slot, Jeremy Hunt picked up more votes than Michael Gove, but the big question is which of them will gain most votes from the three candidates who were eliminated today and anyone else who might drop out by Tuesday.

Apart from Johnson, the main winner of this first round of the contest is Rory Stewart, the international development secretary. He has fought the most unusual campaign, which has struck a chord with the general public – especially with non-Tories – and has been the most willing to face up to the hard choices involved if Brexit proves to be undeliverable.

Immediately after the vote, Stewart threw down a gauntlet for Johnson, who has refused to rule out suspending parliament in order to force through a no-deal Brexit: “If Boris Johnson dared to lock the doors of parliament, we would bring him down.”

He even suggested parliament would meet in Methodist Central Hall, on the other side of Parliament Square, if prime minister Johnson tried such a thing.

Usually, a leadership election is a chance for lesser candidates to advertise their strengths and to make their case for inclusion in the new leader’s cabinet, but this open defiance from Stewart, the newest member of the current cabinet, could keep his tenure brief.

Of the candidates who were automatically eliminated, having failed to gain the 17 votes needed to stay in, Andrea Leadsom, the former leader of the House of Commons, has emerged with enough credit to claim a new job in government. Her 11 votes were a humiliation for someone who came second last time before pulling out of the race, but she came across as a more confident performer than last time.

Today’s votes are probably the end of the road for the middle three candidates. Dominic Raab’s only hope was that Johnson would falter, in which case he stood ready as the hard-Brexit alternative. Sajid Javid, the home secretary, gave his first authentic, fluent, personal speech yesterday, which impressed journalists (even though they had to wait an hour and a half for it) but no more than 23 of his MP colleagues. He could still hope to be Johnson’s chancellor.

And Matt Hancock, the health secretary, must be disappointed with his 20 votes, putting him in sixth place, and only one vote ahead of the arriviste Stewart.

Much could change in the televised debate on Channel 4 on Sunday. That format will play to Stewart’s strengths, although it seems a steep hill to climb to gain the 33 votes he will need to stay in the contest after Tuesday.

But the question of who will fill the second slot in the final stage of the contest – Hunt or Gove – is probably secondary to the question of what Johnson would be like as prime minister.

Conservative Home’s surveys of Tory members are not properly weighted opinion polls, being restricted to self-selected party members, but they have a good record in the past of predicting party votes (and are usually close to the findings of YouGov polls). Today’s survey finds that a clear majority of party members – 54 per cent – want Johnson as leader and prime minister. In second place, a mere 43 points behind, is Stewart.

Those two are the winners today.