Boris Johnson is now a man who can be called a criminal

It feels like Johnson’s time is up – he’s run out of road

Despite what his fans say, Johnson is an electoral liability (Getty)

Timing is everything in politics, or so they say. So I wonder if, almost entirely by chance, the fixed penalty notice with the name “Alexander Boris de Pfeffel Johnson” on it hasn’t arrived at the least bad time, from his point of view.

It won’t save him, though.

He’s broken the law. Not all the rules were obeyed. He didn’t obey the rules. The accounts he gave to the Commons were inaccurate, and not just because he was misinformed by others. He broke the rules himself, and his only defence left is the ludicrous one that he didn’t realise he was at a party (or parties) when he plainly was. We’ve seen the pictures (some of them).

Bang to rights.

But there’s a war on. A big war, if not an existential one, and that hands the prime minister another excuse for delay. Wait for the action in Donbas to calm down, his allies will argue. Then wait for the local elections next month (which will be grim). Then delay until parliament rises for its giant summer holiday. Then see how the party conference goes. Then something else.

On his own narrow terms, Johnson was smart to use the Sue Gray report and the Metropolitan Police investigations to buy time. Not that he had much option. Something might turn up, he seems to have wagered, like Putin starting a war or an economic crisis. So it transpired.

He might even buy more time now, by taking the ticket to appeal at a magistrates’ court. Entirely cynical, but a typical attempt to play the rules. Every day still in office is another day of options staying open. Besides, a lot of his allies will just argue that this is the wrong time for a leadership change. Also – fortunately for Johnson – his most dangerous rival, Rishi Sunak, has been discredited – not least by getting his very own Covid fine. Johnson can’t quit now, surely?

Well, let’s be clear about this point. He could. Mariupol won’t fall. Kyiv won’t surrender. There will be no victory parade in Red Square just because the British prime minister is about to be replaced. We’ve changed PMs in wartime before, in both world wars – wars of national survival, too – and Zelensky will be fine with our next leader. The French, after all, are holding a presidential election, with the prospect of a much more radical change at the top. Whoever follows Johnson won’t change the policy on Ukraine.

The easiest and best option would be to replace Johnson with the likes of Liz Truss or Ben Wallace. The cabinet could, and should, prevail on Johnson to quit, and install a new premier, either temporarily or permanently, and in time for the local elections – along with a new chancellor, the removal of duffers such as Rees-Mogg, Patel and Dorries, and a fresh start.

At the moment, despite what his fans say, Johnson is an electoral liability: the first prime minister to be found guilty of a criminal offence in office; a man who can be called a criminal (assuming he doesn’t get acquitted on appeal) without fear of a libel suit. A man whom many accuse of lying to parliament, leading a government that is insensitive to the cost of living crisis and with more than a whiff of decay about it.

It feels like Johnson’s time is up. He’s run out of road.