Boris Johnson’s famous ability to defy political gravity will be tested to the limits

The prime minister has just had a warning shot, the spectacular revolt by backbenchers signals a loss of trust. He has one last chance to turn things around

After Theresa May suffered a rebellion by more than 100 Tory MPs (including Boris Johnson) against her Brexit deal, she never recovered her authority. Now Johnson’s famous ability to defy political gravity will be tested to the limits after he suffered the same humiliating fate in last night’s spectacular revolt by one in three of his backbenchers. 

This was not just about the (limited) restrictions to combat the (very real) threat from the Omicron variant; for some Tory rebels, it was a warning shot after Johnson’s disastrous few weeks that he – and the country – cannot carry on like this. “It was ‘bloody nose’ time,” one of them told me. 

Yet that makes matters even more serious for Johnson. It reveals a loss of trust, and a growing belief among his MPs that he is no longer the right person to lead the Tories into the next election. Until his idiotic attempt to save Owen Paterson’s skin, most Tories took it for granted that Johnson would fight – and probably win – a second election. Now the lingering doubts about his judgment, trustworthiness and ability to govern that many Tories harboured but were swept away by his thumping election triumph two years ago, have bubbled to the surface again.

The words “Gove was right” are being muttered in Toryland. In 2016, Michael Gove skewered the Johnson leadership campaign he was running (and himself) by saying Johnson “cannot provide the leadership or build the team for the task ahead”.

Some Tories think a poor result in next May’s local elections will prove the final straw for critics, who would then trigger a vote of confidence in him as party leader. Some believe it could happen earlier but are wary of going too quickly in case it fails to oust him (May survived such a vote). 

Once lost, trust is very difficult to rebuild – whether among voters or your party. Johnson will struggle to win round the Tory lockdown sceptics while omicron is still with us. They are so blinkered that they judge all the warnings about its risk are about generating a “fear factor” – even when they come from medical and scientific advisers. These MPs should ask themselves: would Johnson really be proposing restrictions if they were not urgently needed?

Ministers admit privately they will probably need to go further, and implement a plan C. Johnson will try to rely on advice rather than legally binding rules to limit social mixing in England – for the Christmas period, at least – so he can avoid another Commons vote and another public humiliation. If so, it would not be the first time he had followed Nicola Sturgeon’s lead. She is appealing to Scots to limit socialising to three households before and after Christmas.

It matters that Johnson needed to rely on Labour votes to secure his plan B, and he knows he might have to again in the new year. It is very uncomfortable for any prime minister. The Labour rebellion against Tony Blair’s education reforms was fuelled by David Cameron backing them. (Similarly, Tony Blair was relieved when the Tories under Michael Howard did not support his plans to raise university tuition fees). 

Labour has played a perfect hand to compound Johnson’s pain. By promising in advance to support his Covid restrictions, Keir Starmer increased the Tory rebellion since backbenchers who mainly wanted to give Johnson a kicking knew the measures would be approved. Labour is shaping government policy: in the summer, Starmer declined to back vaccine passports for nightclubs and large venues because the government did not allow lateral flow tests as an alternative, which it has now belatedly done.   

For once, the public will hear Labour’s message because people are tuned in to a national emergency. The impressive Wes Streeting, the new shadow health secretary, is making a more powerful and articulate case for the government’s measures than Johnson and his ministers, who need to constantly look over their shoulder at the Tory rebels. Remarkably, at a time when people would normally rally behind the government of the day, the opposition looks like the government and the government like a divided rabble that has just lost an election. 

The bigger than expected rebellion was a dramatic “change or die” message to the prime minister. But many Tories doubt he will get it: when he pleaded with the 1922 committee to back him an hour before the vote, some backbenchers were appalled that he dismissed the stories about Downing Street parties before last Christmas as “flaky”. There’s little sign of the contrition or humility he needs to show for his mistakes there. 

Johnson now has one last chance to turn things around and save his premiership in his new year reset. His task is getting harder by the day.