Boris Johnson's bungled management of the pandemic is accidentally making a terrific case for Scottish independence

With each inadvertent contribution from the prime minister and display of effective leadership from Nicola Sturgeon, it seems inevitable

While Boris Johnson, his fiancée Carrie Symonds and baby Wilfred were settling in for a bracing break on the west coast of Scotland, some 200 miles to the south east, Johnson’s nemesis was busily accumulating yet another dollop of political credibility, and hastening the end of the United Kingdom and of Johnson’s premiership. Briskly efficient, with fluency in bureaucratese and a taste for precision, Nicola Sturgeon’s daily Edinburgh coronavirus press conferences are, like ‘em or not, a masterclass of political presentation.

No doubt her first concern has always been the health of the people of Scotland; but if, just a fanciful thought here, you understand, she might have also wanted to demonstrate that a Scottish government – and an independent one at that led by her – would be perfectly capable of dealing with a pandemic and anything else thrown at it, she has succeeded handsomely.

Her professionalism is consummate and her work ethic prodigious. Even if they were not, she doesn’t really need to do any more than turn up and do her daily “I’m in charge” schtick to draw the appropriate contrast with the clown down in Downing Street.

Where Johnson has long since tired of turning up to face the media, or understand how many families make a bubble, Sturgeon is the Duracell bunny of devolved administration. On and on and on she goes, day in, day out, banging through the ritual condolences, gravely enunciating the death and infection stats, running through the local lockdown round-up, then a statement on the main issue of the day, and a judicious scolding of whatever numpty footballer has brought shame upon her nation. After that, a sip of Highland Spring and a pause while she nods approvingly through the expert’s contribution.

Last lap on the Sturgeon Show is her politely and firmly answering the media’s questions. She does this with just a pinch of the impatience that conveys to the viewer that this very busy chief executive has indeed already carefully considered whatever point the journalist on the Zoom call might put to her.

She does not ruffle that crash-helmet hairstyle; she does not lapse into Latin; she avoids lame gags; she does not swallow her words. She looks ready to take the stage at the UN as the first prime minister of an independent Scotland; Johnson’s bumbling game hasn’t really moved on since he used to pose around the Oxford Union Society.

Sturgeon must have hammered her way through more than a hundred of these sessions, either in the press room or in the Scottish parliament at First Minister’s Questions; and I can’t think of a single gaffe. She’s made her mistakes, and all that unfortunate business with Alex Salmond has been a distraction. She’s found herself in some tight corners, as when she supposedly covered up an early Covid outbreak in an Edinburgh hotel, or when her chief medical officer was caught breaking lockdown rules. Lately, she’s been trying to evade answering when she found out that Covid-19 positive patients were being decanted from hospitals into Scottish care homes. Ruth Davidson, the recycled Tory leader, will prove a more formidable opponent than any other Sturgeon has to face (possibly excepting Salmond); but Sturgeon still dominates the scene. She is a class act and the biggest single danger to the Union and the political career of Johnson. Even if coronavirus and Brexit don’t destroy him, losing Scotland certainly ought to.

The politician Johnson derided as “that bloody wee Jimmy Krankie woman” has the capacity to utterly humiliate him. He patently doesn’t know how to deal with her, personally or politically, except by simply refusing to discuss a fresh referendum. It is not a sustainable position, not when the SNP is on the brink of a landslide in next year’s Scottish parliamentary elections, which they will surely turn into a plebiscite on independence.

It is not easy to see, however, what Sturgeon’s next move would be, except that it will be cautious and above all lawful – there will be no UDI or unofficial referendum. But one way or another, perhaps through popular protest and growing civil disobedience, the attempt by London to resist change in Scotland will in due course be resisted and collapse. What if the Scots stopped paying their taxes? Or went on strike? Or blockaded the roads, or the border? The anger will grow, at least for some, a terrible sense of being denied a birthright. The Union cannot and should not be held together by force or legal actions; it is supposed to be a great historical political partnership of equals that commands the consent of all, not some quasi-colonial struggle against oppression. In fact, going on for a half of the Scottish people want to stay in the UK, and Sturgeon is astute enough to realise that a 48 to 52 per cent victory for independence would be far too traumatic. She needs a “6” in front of the number of the vote for independence, if not a “7” for the project to make sense. Again Johnson Michael Gove and Dominic Cummings might prove unwitting allies. Bullying by a bunch of English-based Tories who even now refuse to cooperate with existing devolution conventions and machinery for consultation would only help Sturgeon to turn more public opinion in her favour. The tragedy of home rule for Ireland is a warning from history.

I happen to think Scottish independence would be bad for Scotland and bad for the rest of the UK, but it’s a matter for the people of Scotland. (The English are complacent about it, with a few Tories fervent supporters and a few others preferring a little England with a permanent Tory government).

As with Brexit and the UK, the Scots might end up poorer but happier, free and independent, no longer ruled by a party few of them voted for, taking back control, of their own affairs. It’s up to them. They might be richer if they “unleash Scotland’s potential” shall we say – the ironic echoes of Johnson’s 2016 Brexit campaign are unavoidable. They might go carbon neutral by 2030 or not; nationalise the trains or not; ban Huawei or welcome the Chinese in; turn Scotland into a colder Singapore – they can make their own sovereign decisions. Like the Irish or the Danes, they can play their own role in Europe and the world, as far as their talents take them. In truth, the post-Brexit UK is a minor player on the world stage anyway, almost comically so when threatening Russia or China. Scotland might well have more international clout through the EU than the English will do as about the 10th largest economy in the world (adjust for real exchange rates, loss of Scottish GDP and slow economic growth after next year).

In any case, Scottish independence looks increasingly inevitable, and, able as she is, Sturgeon could never secure it without Johnson’s own inadvertent contribution. So when it happens, you know who to blame.