Mike Bloomberg may win Arkansas while everyone else looks away

Presidential hopefuls rarely visit the state that contributes among the fewest delegates — but the billionaire has been focusing his efforts here, with seemingly positive results

Mike Bloomberg speaks in front of an American flag (AP)

With the recent withdrawals from three major contenders for the Democratic nomination, voters in Arkansas will be joining larger states across the US to decide who will go up against President Donald Trump in November.

The Southern state, which has a population of just three million, contributes among the fewest delegates — 31 — of the total 1,357 delegates awarded from Super Tuesday states. As a result, presidential hopefuls rarely visit the state or spend noticeable amounts of money on television ads. Unlike in states like Iowa and New Hampshire, which go first, or larger states like Texas and California, Arkansans are accustomed to choosing their candidate without ever hearing them speak in person.

For Nick Bradford, a Little Rock resident and marketing specialist for a global company, his heart has always been set on Elizabeth Warren, who only just made her first visit to Arkansas over the weekend.

"I'm very excited about my candidate. I voted for Elizabeth Warren and I want better representation. I believe that it's time for a woman to be president,” said Bradford, who also voted for Hillary Clinton in 2016. “My partner also voted for Elizabeth Warren, and my mom donates to her campaign.”

For the last decade, Arkansas has been trending conservative, aside from some major cities and the Delta. Once home to President Bill Clinton (then governor) and former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, both senators and four congressional representatives at the national level are all Republican. Internally, there is a Republican governor and Republicans also control the state legislature. It is widely expected that the state will again go for Trump, as it did in 2016.

Polling data on who is in the lead in Arkansas is scarce, as fewer polls are conducted for the state than in other battlegrounds. A TalkBusiness/Hendrix College poll from early February gave former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg a slim lead, back when businessman Andrew Yang, former South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg and Senator Amy Klobuchar were still in the running and before Biden succeeded in South Carolina.

It’s unknown how Biden, a familiar moderate face who has run for president before, could do. Though he could sop up some votes from Klobuchar and Buttigieg who withdrew after early voting had begun, Biden never set foot in the state this cycle. In an interview with the New York Times last month, the chairman of the Democratic Party of Arkansas said that Arkansas was a “default Biden state,” but that his campaign is the “least organized” of all the contenders.

Bloomberg, meanwhile, has yet to earn a single delegate anywhere, but has gained traction with Arkansans. He raised eyebrows last fall when he filed to run in the state — ahead of any formal announcement about his candidacy. It was in stark contrast to the fact that even some of the declared candidates at the time, such as former Secretary of Housing and Urban Development Julian Castro, hadn’t filed at all.

Bloomberg has since spent millions of dollars in advertising in the state and has visited three times — more than any other candidate. For many Arkansans, who are used to seeing few TV ads during each election cycle, it seems as though Bloomberg’s ads are always on.

Acknowledging the controversial stop-and-frisk policy Bloomberg implemented in his hometown, the former mayor has especially sought to endear himself to black voters, who reliably vote Democrat here. In January, he marched alongside other Arkansans to commemorate civil rights leader Martin Luther King, Jr., and has secured the endorsement of Frank Scott, the first black mayor of Little Rock who is now a co-chair of the Mike for Black America National Leadership Council.

Political strategist Brian Richardson said that even with Tuesday’s turnout expected to be lower than usual, the results could be “hotly contested” and that voters will be looking for “personality and stability.”

Richardson is especially interested to see how well Bloomberg does, especially given the extra TLC the former mayor has given the state.

“I expect for him to have a decent showing,” said Richardson. “I guess we'll find out if that investment pays off.”