What Republicans need to do now the reign of Trump is over
It’s time to regroup, re-strategize and look at the numbers
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Donald Trump lost the 2020 election. Still, it was not the repudiation of the Republican Party many people expected. A blue wave did not exist. The best scenario for an incoming Biden administration is a 50-50 split in the Senate. The Democrats lost seats in the House.
However, Trump did become the first president to lose re-election since George H W Bush in 1992. No amount of excuses about non-existent voter fraud, the media, or "big tech censorship" takes away from the fact the GOP has work to ascend to majority status in the country.
Yes, Trump increased his vote totals from 2016. Yes, he received a larger share of minority voters than in 2016. And yes, he still came close in states such as Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania, showing Republicans can win there. Exit polls showed that 73 percent of voters pay more attention to issues than personal qualities, which should answer questions for those baffled about how anyone could vote for Trump the person. Trump won those voters over Biden by five points.
Still, 23 percent did say personal qualities mattered more, and Biden won those voters by 36 points. And though Trump did increase his share of minority voters, with an increasing minority population, Republicans will have to do better than 12 percent among Black Americans and 30 percent with the Latino population.
Republicans also have to figure out how to increase their vote totals in larger cities. In cities with a population of 50,000 or more, Biden won by 23 points. The GOP will find that heavily relying on a rural voter base won't work when 80 percent of the population lives in the suburbs and cities.
Trump also hurt himself with his pandemic response. Among the 17 percent of voters who said the coronavirus pandemic was the most crucial issue in their decision, Biden won those voters by a split of 82-17. In an election where Biden won several states by thousands of votes, the president's lack of leadership came back to haunt him. Hindsight is 20/20. Still, if Trump showed more concern early on instead of behaving as the virus was a nuisance instead of a killer, didn't mock safeguards such as masks and social distancing, and didn't attack people such as Dr Anthony Fauci, the result might have been different.
That will be a core concern moving forward. Yes, Trump tapped into a portion of the electorate that is conservative — but he also saw the Republican Party as one that was more interested in serving the interests of wealthy people and businesses. He used anger and resentment as a means of motivating people, and many other Republicans followed suit. Appearing on Fox News (which appears to be carefully extricating itself from the president now) and using social media to yell about Democrats, the “deep state”, fake news, big tech, socialism, and coups, Republicans focused so much time on airing grievances they might as well have changed the party name to The Festivus Party.
It's easy for Senators and House members in safe states and Congressional districts to pop off about anything without concern because there are no consequences. They are only worried about possible primary opponents.
However, a president must navigate the landscape to appeal to the base and the political center, who ultimately decides elections. Those who identified themselves as moderate went for Biden over Trump by 31 points. Voters identifying themselves as independents broke for Biden by 14 points.
In the end, policies do matter. But as politically divided as the nation is, nationwide elections will get won on the margins. The people who think the GOP will succeed in governing like Trump and behaving like him are in for a rude awakening. It will undoubtedly work in districts where GOP candidates run unopposed. But it will prove to be a loser in a nationwide contest. The evidence is in the numbers.
Jay Caruso is managing editor of the Washington Examiner and former editorial writer at the Dallas Morning News
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